Samford
Southern
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#267
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#275
Pace78.0#30
Improvement-2.9#316

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#204
First Shot-1.8#224
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#151
Layup/Dunks+3.3#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#156
Freethrows-2.1#298
Improvement-1.1#255

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#308
First Shot-5.6#317
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#152
Layups/Dunks+5.3#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#330
Freethrows-3.3#322
Improvement-1.8#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 1.7% 3.4% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 2.9% 5.5% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.5% 24.1% 50.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 32 - 74 - 12
Quad 44 - 47 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 29, 2020 333   Alabama A&M L 76-78 79%     0 - 1 -17.1 -10.4 -6.4
  Dec 05, 2020 98   @ Belmont W 96-83 11%     1 - 1 +19.8 +11.5 +6.6
  Dec 12, 2020 95   @ Georgia L 75-79 11%     1 - 2 +3.0 -1.7 +5.0
  Dec 16, 2020 292   @ Troy L 71-79 48%     1 - 3 -14.1 -10.8 -2.3
  Dec 19, 2020 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 65-63 74%     2 - 3 -11.0 -13.2 +2.1
  Dec 30, 2020 220   VMI W 84-71 47%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +7.3 +0.5 +6.0
  Jan 02, 2021 123   @ Wofford L 84-94 14%     3 - 4 1 - 1 -5.0 +8.2 -12.7
  Jan 06, 2021 172   @ Chattanooga L 68-73 25%     3 - 5 1 - 2 -4.4 -7.3 +3.0
  Jan 14, 2021 122   UNC Greensboro L 63-87 22%     3 - 6 1 - 3 -22.3 -11.4 -9.1
  Jan 16, 2021 122   UNC Greensboro L 70-82 22%     3 - 7 1 - 4 -10.3 -0.5 -9.7
  Jan 18, 2021 180   Western Carolina L 81-84 43%    
  Jan 20, 2021 172   Chattanooga L 75-79 41%    
  Jan 23, 2021 269   The Citadel W 94-92 62%    
  Jan 27, 2021 152   @ Mercer L 78-87 18%    
  Jan 30, 2021 180   @ Western Carolina L 79-86 23%    
  Feb 03, 2021 80   Furman L 74-86 17%    
  Feb 10, 2021 152   Mercer L 80-85 36%    
  Feb 13, 2021 220   @ VMI L 80-84 30%    
  Feb 17, 2021 80   @ Furman L 73-88 7%    
  Feb 20, 2021 145   East Tennessee St. L 70-76 34%    
  Feb 24, 2021 123   Wofford L 71-79 27%    
  Feb 27, 2021 269   @ The Citadel L 92-94 39%    
Projected Record 7 - 15 5 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.6 3.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.5 4.6 4.4 0.6 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.3 4.8 7.3 1.3 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.3 4.8 9.7 3.0 0.1 17.9 8th
9th 0.4 5.5 11.0 4.5 0.2 21.6 9th
10th 2.3 7.9 10.1 4.3 0.3 25.0 10th
Total 2.3 8.3 15.9 20.4 19.8 15.7 9.7 5.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 13.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 4.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.2
10-8 0.7% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-10 5.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.0
7-11 9.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
6-12 15.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.7
5-13 19.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.7
4-14 20.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.4
3-15 15.9% 15.9
2-16 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.3
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%