UMKC
Summit League
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#237
Expected Predictive Rating-13.9#323
Pace60.8#340
Improvement+1.8#71

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#286
First Shot-3.9#275
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#213
Layup/Dunks+6.1#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#305
Freethrows-3.4#333
Improvement+0.6#126

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#177
First Shot-1.2#199
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#112
Layups/Dunks+4.1#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#125
Freethrows-9.1#348
Improvement+1.2#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 6.1% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.1% 6.8% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 10.9% 30.0% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.9% 5.8% 3.4%
First Round2.4% 3.8% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 22.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 45 - 56 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 308   Southeast Missouri St. L 66-71 73%     0 - 1 -16.2 -13.7 -2.3
  Nov 30, 2020 151   @ Kansas St. L 58-62 24%     0 - 2 -1.3 -4.4 +2.5
  Dec 10, 2020 25   @ Minnesota L 61-90 4%     0 - 3 -13.8 -2.3 -12.5
  Dec 12, 2020 75   @ Toledo L 57-64 10%     0 - 4 +2.2 -3.7 +4.4
  Dec 23, 2020 32   @ Saint Louis L 46-62 5%     0 - 5 -1.9 -11.6 +6.5
  Jan 02, 2021 278   @ North Dakota L 45-52 53%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -12.5 -27.3 +14.5
  Jan 03, 2021 278   @ North Dakota W 77-53 53%     1 - 6 1 - 1 +18.5 +12.7 +8.8
  Jan 08, 2021 174   South Dakota L 64-66 42%     1 - 7 1 - 2 -4.7 -4.9 +0.0
  Jan 09, 2021 174   South Dakota L 62-68 42%     1 - 8 1 - 3 -8.7 -8.0 -1.2
  Jan 23, 2021 160   @ Oral Roberts L 67-74 22%    
  Jan 24, 2021 160   @ Oral Roberts L 67-74 23%    
  Jan 29, 2021 161   North Dakota St. L 59-62 44%    
  Jan 30, 2021 161   North Dakota St. L 59-62 42%    
  Feb 12, 2021 268   Nebraska Omaha W 67-64 65%    
  Feb 13, 2021 268   Nebraska Omaha W 67-64 65%    
  Feb 19, 2021 326   Denver W 72-63 83%    
  Feb 20, 2021 326   Denver W 72-63 83%    
  Feb 26, 2021 98   @ South Dakota St. L 63-75 13%    
  Feb 27, 2021 98   @ South Dakota St. L 63-75 12%    
Projected Record 6 - 13 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.4 4th
5th 0.4 2.5 5.2 4.5 1.1 0.2 13.9 5th
6th 1.8 11.5 17.5 9.4 2.4 0.3 42.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 11.2 11.9 3.9 0.3 30.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.1 3.1 0.6 8.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.4 2.0 7.3 16.1 24.3 23.9 15.1 7.6 2.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.6% 20.3% 20.3% 16.0 0.1 0.5
9-7 2.6% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.2 2.4
8-8 7.6% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.8 6.9
7-9 15.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.8 14.2
6-10 23.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 1.2 22.8
5-11 24.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.6 23.7
4-12 16.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 15.8
3-13 7.3% 7.3
2-14 2.0% 2.0
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%