Toledo
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#75
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#60
Pace68.6#210
Improvement+1.3#102

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#18
First Shot+5.3#47
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#32
Layup/Dunks+0.6#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#32
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement+4.3#10

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot-0.5#180
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#195
Layups/Dunks-3.8#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows+1.4#88
Improvement-3.0#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.4% 42.8% 32.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.3% 14.2% 5.2%
Average Seed 11.4 11.0 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 95.1% 98.0% 91.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.1% 5.1% 2.8%
First Round36.0% 39.7% 31.0%
Second Round10.0% 11.7% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.0% 2.1%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 24 - 4
Quad 37 - 310 - 7
Quad 413 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 120   Bradley L 59-61 65%     0 - 1 +1.5 -6.9 +8.3
  Nov 26, 2020 246   Oakland W 80-53 88%     1 - 1 +21.6 +5.4 +17.1
  Nov 27, 2020 47   @ Xavier L 73-76 31%     1 - 2 +9.6 +4.0 +5.7
  Dec 01, 2020 189   Cleveland St. W 70-61 85%     2 - 2 +5.3 +0.8 +4.8
  Dec 04, 2020 272   @ Eastern Michigan W 91-74 88%     3 - 2 1 - 0 +11.8 +15.7 -4.0
  Dec 09, 2020 3   @ Michigan L 71-91 12%     3 - 3 +0.6 +9.1 -8.8
  Dec 12, 2020 214   UMKC W 64-57 88%     4 - 3 +1.6 +3.1 -0.2
  Dec 16, 2020 81   @ Marshall W 96-87 OT 45%     5 - 3 +17.7 +8.0 +7.9
  Dec 19, 2020 200   Valparaiso W 71-57 87%     6 - 3 +9.5 +1.9 +8.5
  Dec 22, 2020 295   Northern Illinois W 78-55 94%     7 - 3 2 - 0 +12.9 +1.4 +11.5
  Jan 02, 2021 279   @ Western Michigan W 70-59 88%     8 - 3 3 - 0 +5.5 -2.8 +8.6
  Jan 05, 2021 94   @ Kent St. W 84-82 51%     9 - 3 4 - 0 +9.3 +15.4 -6.1
  Jan 08, 2021 117   Ohio W 95-78 71%     10 - 3 5 - 0 +18.9 +13.1 +4.6
  Jan 12, 2021 272   Eastern Michigan W 96-63 92%     11 - 3 6 - 0 +24.5 +26.2 +0.5
  Jan 16, 2021 113   @ Akron L 94-95 OT 57%     11 - 4 6 - 1 +4.8 +18.9 -14.1
  Jan 19, 2021 244   Central Michigan W 89-72 91%     12 - 4 7 - 1 +9.9 +5.4 +3.5
  Jan 23, 2021 94   Kent St. W 76-74 64%     13 - 4 8 - 1 +6.0 +4.5 +1.5
  Jan 26, 2021 168   @ Miami (OH) W 90-81 74%     14 - 4 9 - 1 +9.9 +16.8 -6.7
  Jan 30, 2021 136   @ Bowling Green W 79-76 58%    
  Feb 02, 2021 113   Akron W 79-74 73%    
  Feb 06, 2021 146   @ Ball St. W 78-73 63%    
  Feb 09, 2021 295   @ Northern Illinois W 77-63 89%    
  Feb 13, 2021 136   Bowling Green W 81-74 78%    
  Feb 16, 2021 168   Miami (OH) W 81-71 85%    
  Feb 20, 2021 105   @ Buffalo W 82-81 50%    
  Feb 27, 2021 279   Western Michigan W 80-64 95%    
  Mar 02, 2021 244   @ Central Michigan W 87-76 82%    
  Mar 05, 2021 146   Ball St. W 80-72 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 17 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.4 13.1 22.9 27.2 19.8 7.0 95.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.2 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 6.1 14.1 23.1 27.2 19.8 7.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 7.0    7.0
18-2 100.0% 19.8    19.8
17-3 100.0% 27.2    27.0 0.2
16-4 99.0% 22.9    21.7 1.2
15-5 92.7% 13.1    10.5 2.5 0.0
14-6 71.5% 4.4    2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0
13-7 32.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-8 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 95.1% 95.1 88.4 6.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 7.0% 71.6% 42.1% 29.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.0 51.0%
18-2 19.8% 53.1% 38.2% 14.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 9.3 24.2%
17-3 27.2% 39.2% 33.5% 5.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.4 2.2 0.1 16.5 8.6%
16-4 23.1% 30.7% 29.0% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 16.0 2.3%
15-5 14.1% 24.3% 23.9% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 0.6%
14-6 6.1% 20.7% 20.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.9 0.2%
13-7 2.1% 16.9% 16.9% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7
12-8 0.4% 7.8% 7.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 0.1% 7.9% 7.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.4% 31.4% 7.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.6 3.2 7.0 14.5 8.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 61.6 10.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 6.8 0.6 4.2 17.1 28.6 18.9 13.7 9.6 4.0 2.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 58.1% 10.3 0.1 0.6 4.1 11.1 13.7 17.0 11.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 50.4% 10.6 0.4 2.5 7.2 11.5 16.3 11.4 1.0