Minnesota
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#23
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#12
Pace74.4#65
Improvement+5.1#8

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#31
First Shot+7.2#24
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks+1.2#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#140
Freethrows+5.4#1
Improvement+0.3#143

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#33
First Shot+7.3#15
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#239
Layups/Dunks+2.0#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#59
Freethrows+1.5#93
Improvement+4.8#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.9% 6.0% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 25.9% 30.3% 11.7%
Top 6 Seed 55.6% 60.4% 39.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.3% 95.3% 86.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.9% 95.0% 86.3%
Average Seed 6.1 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 87.1% 65.7%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.8% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.0% 2.4% 5.0%
First Round91.8% 94.1% 84.2%
Second Round60.4% 63.4% 50.5%
Sweet Sixteen27.6% 30.0% 19.8%
Elite Eight10.7% 11.9% 7.0%
Final Four3.8% 4.2% 2.5%
Championship Game1.2% 1.3% 0.9%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 18 - 9
Quad 22 - 110 - 9
Quad 35 - 015 - 10
Quad 44 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 275   Green Bay W 99-69 97%     1 - 0 +21.4 -2.6 +17.6
  Nov 28, 2020 126   Loyola Marymount W 88-73 87%     2 - 0 +16.4 +7.6 +6.8
  Nov 30, 2020 126   Loyola Marymount W 67-64 87%     3 - 0 +4.4 +0.7 +3.8
  Dec 04, 2020 281   North Dakota W 76-67 97%     4 - 0 +0.0 +2.2 -2.0
  Dec 08, 2020 108   Boston College W 85-80 OT 84%     5 - 0 +7.8 +0.7 +6.5
  Dec 10, 2020 236   UMKC W 90-61 96%     6 - 0 +22.5 +19.6 +4.0
  Dec 15, 2020 9   @ Illinois L 65-92 31%     6 - 1 0 - 1 -8.5 -9.3 +4.5
  Dec 20, 2020 29   Saint Louis W 90-82 61%     7 - 1 +18.7 +10.1 +7.5
  Dec 25, 2020 3   Iowa W 102-95 OT 32%     8 - 1 1 - 1 +25.4 +23.1 +1.7
  Dec 28, 2020 38   Michigan St. W 81-56 64%     9 - 1 2 - 1 +34.7 +8.9 +24.5
  Dec 31, 2020 12   @ Wisconsin L 59-71 33%     9 - 2 2 - 2 +6.0 +0.8 +4.1
  Jan 03, 2021 19   Ohio St. W 77-60 51%     10 - 2 3 - 2 +30.1 +12.2 +19.0
  Jan 06, 2021 7   @ Michigan L 57-82 29%     10 - 3 3 - 3 -5.9 -5.2 -1.4
  Jan 10, 2021 3   @ Iowa L 71-86 22%     10 - 4 3 - 4 +6.8 +0.7 +6.6
  Jan 16, 2021 7   Michigan W 75-57 41%     11 - 4 4 - 4 +33.7 +8.5 +25.0
  Jan 20, 2021 124   @ Nebraska W 83-74 77%    
  Jan 23, 2021 50   Maryland W 75-71 71%    
  Jan 30, 2021 27   @ Purdue L 70-71 41%    
  Feb 04, 2021 41   @ Rutgers W 74-73 46%    
  Feb 07, 2021 124   Nebraska W 84-72 89%    
  Feb 11, 2021 27   Purdue W 72-70 63%    
  Feb 14, 2021 50   @ Maryland W 74-73 49%    
  Feb 17, 2021 30   @ Indiana L 71-72 43%    
  Feb 20, 2021 9   Illinois L 77-79 49%    
  Feb 27, 2021 73   Northwestern W 78-71 78%    
  Mar 03, 2021 53   @ Penn St. W 79-77 52%    
  Mar 06, 2021 41   Rutgers W 75-71 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.6 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.3 1.3 0.2 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.7 5.1 7.4 2.4 0.2 15.8 3rd
4th 0.4 4.2 8.8 3.1 0.3 16.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 8.0 4.2 0.3 14.8 5th
6th 0.7 5.6 5.6 0.5 12.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 5.6 1.3 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.0 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 2.1 0.1 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.3 3.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.8 9.8 16.0 19.9 19.3 14.8 8.4 2.8 0.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 74.1% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 48.5% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 17.2% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2
13-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-5 2.8% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.4% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 3.2 0.2 1.9 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-7 14.8% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 4.3 0.4 3.2 5.2 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 19.3% 99.9% 6.0% 93.9% 5.3 0.1 1.2 3.5 6.1 5.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 19.9% 99.9% 3.3% 96.6% 6.4 0.4 0.7 3.2 5.7 6.4 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 16.0% 98.9% 2.1% 96.8% 7.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.6 4.5 5.4 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.9%
9-11 9.8% 86.0% 1.0% 85.0% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.1 1.4 85.9%
8-12 5.8% 50.4% 0.3% 50.0% 11.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 2.9 50.2%
7-13 1.8% 7.7% 7.7% 12.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 7.7%
6-14 0.6% 3.3% 3.3% 14.0 0.0 0.6 3.3%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.3% 4.9% 88.3% 6.1 0.9 4.0 9.3 11.7 15.2 14.5 14.2 10.1 4.9 2.7 2.8 2.5 0.4 0.1 6.7 92.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 50.3 49.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 14.0 56.6 29.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 33.9 58.1 8.1