Oakland
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#254
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#203
Pace72.9#100
Improvement+3.6#22

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#212
First Shot-1.7#216
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#169
Layup/Dunks-4.5#314
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#94
Freethrows+1.6#80
Improvement+3.3#17

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#291
First Shot+0.0#172
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#341
Layups/Dunks+0.9#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#329
Freethrows+3.6#13
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.5% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 2.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.2% 39.4% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 1.5%
First Four2.8% 3.2% 2.2%
First Round1.6% 2.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 54.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 46 - 59 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 47   @ Xavier L 49-101 5%     0 - 1 -39.4 -22.0 -13.0
  Nov 26, 2020 77   Toledo L 53-80 12%     0 - 2 -19.9 -18.2 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2020 111   Bradley L 60-74 17%     0 - 3 -9.7 -14.4 +5.7
  Nov 29, 2020 7   @ Michigan L 71-81 OT 2%     0 - 4 +9.2 -3.8 +14.5
  Dec 01, 2020 28   @ Purdue L 50-93 4%     0 - 5 -28.7 -11.0 -21.4
  Dec 05, 2020 32   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-84 4%     0 - 6 +1.0 +2.6 -1.1
  Dec 13, 2020 37   @ Michigan St. L 91-109 5%     0 - 7 -4.9 +12.6 -15.1
  Dec 19, 2020 210   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-74 34%     0 - 8 0 - 1 -3.6 -2.4 -1.1
  Dec 20, 2020 210   @ Illinois-Chicago L 73-90 34%     0 - 9 0 - 2 -18.6 -2.7 -14.7
  Dec 26, 2020 222   @ Detroit Mercy W 77-75 OT 36%     1 - 9 1 - 2 -0.3 -7.8 +7.3
  Dec 27, 2020 222   @ Detroit Mercy W 83-80 36%     2 - 9 2 - 2 +0.7 +6.8 -6.1
  Jan 01, 2021 79   Wright St. L 51-90 15%     2 - 10 2 - 3 -33.7 -23.2 -6.7
  Jan 02, 2021 79   Wright St. W 81-71 15%     3 - 10 3 - 3 +15.3 +14.8 +0.8
  Jan 08, 2021 271   @ Green Bay L 81-84 OT 47%     3 - 11 3 - 4 -8.2 -1.5 -6.5
  Jan 09, 2021 271   @ Green Bay L 78-87 47%     3 - 12 3 - 5 -14.2 -4.9 -8.7
  Jan 15, 2021 268   Youngstown St. W 82-65 59%     4 - 12 4 - 5 +8.7 -0.7 +9.2
  Jan 16, 2021 268   Youngstown St. W 81-74 59%     5 - 12 5 - 5 -1.3 +1.4 -2.5
  Jan 22, 2021 222   Detroit Mercy L 76-77 54%    
  Jan 23, 2021 222   Detroit Mercy L 76-77 55%    
  Jan 29, 2021 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-82 27%    
  Jan 30, 2021 193   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-82 28%    
  Feb 05, 2021 189   Cleveland St. L 69-71 48%    
  Feb 06, 2021 189   Cleveland St. L 69-71 48%    
  Feb 12, 2021 230   @ Robert Morris L 71-74 33%    
  Feb 13, 2021 230   @ Robert Morris L 71-74 33%    
  Feb 19, 2021 209   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-75 31%    
  Feb 20, 2021 209   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-75 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 2.7 2nd
3rd 1.0 8.1 12.5 5.1 0.6 27.3 3rd
4th 0.4 8.3 13.9 4.7 0.2 27.5 4th
5th 0.0 4.1 12.9 5.4 0.3 0.0 22.8 5th
6th 0.4 7.7 4.0 0.3 12.4 6th
7th 1.8 3.1 0.2 5.2 7th
8th 1.6 0.3 1.9 8th
9th 0.3 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 4.2 15.6 26.4 27.7 18.1 6.8 1.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.4% 10.5% 10.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
10-8 6.8% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 6.4
9-9 18.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 17.3
8-10 27.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 27.0
7-11 26.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.6 25.8
6-12 15.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 15.3
5-13 4.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.8 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%