Preseason Rankings
St. John's
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#52
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace81.3#6
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#48
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.8% 7.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 14.6% 14.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.6% 37.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.7% 32.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 n/a
.500 or above 74.6% 74.6% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 54.6% 54.6% 0.0%
Conference Champion 8.1% 8.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 8.4% 56.3%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 0.0%
First Round35.9% 35.9% 0.0%
Second Round21.4% 21.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.4% 9.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 35 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 101-64 100.0%   
  Nov 13, 2021 191   St. Peter's W 80-66 89%    
  Nov 17, 2021 30   @ Indiana L 72-78 31%    
  Nov 20, 2021 323   Fairleigh Dickinson W 95-73 97%    
  Nov 23, 2021 320   St. Francis Brooklyn W 96-74 97%    
  Nov 27, 2021 293   NJIT W 87-67 95%    
  Dec 03, 2021 4   Kansas L 75-83 27%    
  Dec 05, 2021 275   Fordham W 77-58 94%    
  Dec 09, 2021 216   Monmouth W 93-78 89%    
  Dec 12, 2021 105   Colgate W 89-81 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 117   Pittsburgh W 82-73 76%    
  Dec 20, 2021 41   @ Seton Hall L 74-79 35%    
  Dec 23, 2021 64   Butler W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 29, 2021 78   Marquette W 80-74 67%    
  Jan 01, 2022 86   @ Georgetown W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 05, 2022 112   DePaul W 83-75 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 65   @ Providence L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 12, 2022 25   @ Connecticut L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 16, 2022 86   Georgetown W 83-77 69%    
  Jan 19, 2022 48   @ Creighton L 78-81 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 70-80 22%    
  Feb 01, 2022 65   Providence W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 64   @ Butler L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 08, 2022 6   Villanova L 73-77 39%    
  Feb 13, 2022 25   Connecticut L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 16, 2022 37   @ Xavier L 77-82 35%    
  Feb 23, 2022 48   Creighton W 81-78 58%    
  Feb 27, 2022 112   @ DePaul W 80-78 58%    
  Mar 02, 2022 37   Xavier W 80-79 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 78   @ Marquette L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 8.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.6 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.6 5.1 6.3 7.8 8.5 9.4 9.5 9.3 8.8 7.7 6.1 5.2 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
18-2 93.9% 1.2    1.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 78.4% 1.8    1.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 56.0% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.5% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 5.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 60.7% 39.3% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 2.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 3.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.8% 99.5% 26.9% 72.6% 4.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-5 5.2% 97.7% 20.7% 77.0% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.1%
14-6 6.1% 92.6% 15.1% 77.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 91.3%
13-7 7.7% 81.1% 10.3% 70.8% 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 78.9%
12-8 8.8% 63.4% 7.8% 55.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.2 60.3%
11-9 9.3% 42.0% 5.4% 36.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 5.4 38.7%
10-10 9.5% 23.0% 3.3% 19.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.3 20.3%
9-11 9.4% 7.6% 1.5% 6.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 6.2%
8-12 8.5% 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 1.2%
7-13 7.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.2%
6-14 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
5-15 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.1
4-16 3.6% 3.6
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 37.6% 7.3% 30.3% 7.3 1.1 1.6 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.4 32.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.4 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.3 27.7