IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.1	#167
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.7	#109
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#246

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.3	#109

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.7%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.9%	21.5%	9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	1.3%	0.1%
Average Seed	13.7	12.8	14.1

.500 or above	70.5%	91.3%	65.4%
.500 or above in Conference	76.9%	90.4%	73.6%
Conference Champion	11.9%	21.9%	9.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%

First Four	0.6%	0.9%	0.5%
First Round	11.6%	21.1%	9.3%
Second Round	1.7%	4.6%	1.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	1.5%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 19.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 5	4 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 3	16 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	88	@ Utah	L	66-75	20%
Nov 12, 2021	94	@ Texas A&M	L	62-71	22%
Nov 16, 2021	224	@ Texas Arlington	W	71-70	52%
Nov 22, 2021	164	Jacksonville St.	L	68-69	50%
Dec 04, 2021	345	Incarnate Word	W	77-60	92%
Dec 11, 2021	175	Drexel	W	69-66	61%
Dec 15, 2021	203	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	68-63	66%
Dec 22, 2021	249	Longwood	W	70-62	74%
Dec 30, 2021	209	@ Utah Valley	L	73-74	48%
Jan 01, 2022	303	@ Dixie St.	W	79-74	66%
Jan 06, 2022	153	Stephen F. Austin	W	73-71	57%
Jan 08, 2022	196	Sam Houston St.	W	77-72	66%
Jan 13, 2022	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	66-71	36%
Jan 15, 2022	102	@ New Mexico St.	L	63-71	26%
Jan 20, 2022	179	Seattle	W	75-71	62%
Jan 22, 2022	215	California Baptist	W	79-73	68%
Jan 26, 2022	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-69	67%
Jan 29, 2022	308	@ Lamar	W	73-68	67%
Feb 02, 2022	357	Chicago St.	W	85-60	98%
Feb 05, 2022	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	78-66	82%
Feb 12, 2022	185	@ Tarleton St.	L	65-67	44%
Feb 17, 2022	196	@ Sam Houston St.	L	74-75	47%
Feb 24, 2022	308	Lamar	W	76-65	82%
Feb 26, 2022	153	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	70-74	39%
Mar 03, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	82-71	80%
Mar 05, 2022	185	Tarleton St.	W	68-64	63%
Projected Record						15 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.7	3.4	3.5	2.1	0.7		11.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.8	3.2	4.7	3.3	0.9	0.1			12.9	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.8	3.4	5.2	2.4	0.3	0.0				12.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.6	4.9	2.0	0.2						11.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	3.0	4.5	1.9	0.2							10.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.5	4.6	2.1	0.2	0.0							9.8	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.0	4.1	2.1	0.2	0.0								8.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.3	1.7	3.4	2.0	0.3										7.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.3	2.7	1.6	0.2	0.0										6.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	1.1	1.7	1.1	0.2	0.0											4.4	10th
11th			0.0	0.3	0.8	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0												3.1	11th
12th		0.0	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1														1.6	12th
13th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.1	13th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.5	2.8	4.0	5.9	7.6	9.3	10.7	11.3	11.3	11.0	9.0	7.0	4.4	2.1	0.7			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.7		0.7
17-1	96.8%	2.1		1.8	0.3
16-2	79.3%	3.5		2.5	1.0	0.1
15-3	48.4%	3.4		1.6	1.4	0.4	0.0
14-4	19.3%	1.7		0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	3.8%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.9%	11.9		7.0	3.6	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.7%		72.0%	60.6%	11.4%	9.2			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.2		28.9%
17-1	2.1%		54.4%	49.6%	4.7%	11.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		1.0		9.4%
16-2	4.4%		41.6%	40.5%	1.1%	13.0									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	2.6		1.9%
15-3	7.0%		31.9%	31.5%	0.4%	13.6											0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.0	4.8		0.6%
14-4	9.0%		23.5%	23.5%		14.1													0.1	0.5	0.8	0.6	0.1	6.9
13-5	11.0%		16.1%	16.1%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.2	9.3
12-6	11.3%		8.9%	8.9%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	10.3
11-7	11.3%		6.0%	6.0%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	10.6
10-8	10.7%		3.5%	3.5%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.2	10.3
9-9	9.3%		1.5%	1.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.2
8-10	7.6%		0.7%	0.7%		15.9																0.0	0.0	7.6
7-11	5.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
6-12	4.0%																							4.0
5-13	2.8%																							2.8
4-14	1.5%																							1.5
3-15	0.8%																							0.8
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		11.9%	11.6%	0.3%	13.7			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.4	2.6	3.2	2.7	1.3	88.1		0.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	5.1		4.5	11.0	23.9	26.5	17.7	6.5	3.9	4.2		1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	66.7%	8.8					14.1			7.1	19.2	13.1		13.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	46.2%	10.0									23.1		23.1