Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#259
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#255
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#282
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#233
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.7% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 40.1% 52.8% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 50.8% 60.5% 36.6%
Conference Champion 5.9% 8.2% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 6.6% 16.8%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 1.5%
First Round5.1% 6.9% 2.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 73 - 10
Quad 412 - 815 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 246   Marist W 66-64 59%    
  Nov 12, 2021 295   @ William & Mary L 68-69 46%    
  Nov 16, 2021 86   @ Georgetown L 63-78 10%    
  Nov 19, 2021 249   @ Longwood L 63-66 38%    
  Nov 20, 2021 309   Western Carolina W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 23, 2021 229   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66-71 34%    
  Nov 28, 2021 162   @ Duquesne L 64-73 24%    
  Dec 01, 2021 188   @ Stony Brook L 63-70 28%    
  Dec 04, 2021 332   @ Howard W 78-75 59%    
  Dec 08, 2021 283   St. Francis (PA) W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 11, 2021 242   @ Mount St. Mary's L 60-64 38%    
  Dec 21, 2021 169   @ George Mason L 64-72 25%    
  Dec 28, 2021 227   Siena W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 01, 2022 297   Lehigh W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 04, 2022 292   Lafayette W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 07, 2022 105   @ Colgate L 69-82 15%    
  Jan 10, 2022 197   Boston University L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 13, 2022 321   @ Holy Cross W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 16, 2022 294   Bucknell W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 19, 2022 257   @ Army L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 276   @ Loyola Maryland L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 26, 2022 321   Holy Cross W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 184   @ Navy L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 02, 2022 292   @ Lafayette L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 105   Colgate L 72-79 29%    
  Feb 09, 2022 294   @ Bucknell L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 197   @ Boston University L 64-71 30%    
  Feb 16, 2022 184   Navy L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 257   Army W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 297   @ Lehigh L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 276   Loyola Maryland W 71-67 62%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.0 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.7 5.5 7.4 8.7 10.0 10.4 10.6 9.8 8.8 7.5 5.6 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 90.4% 1.3    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 65.2% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
14-4 35.5% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.9% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 60.7% 60.7% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 47.7% 47.0% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5%
16-2 1.4% 39.0% 38.6% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.5%
15-3 2.5% 28.6% 28.5% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.8 0.1%
14-4 3.9% 21.5% 21.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 3.1
13-5 5.6% 16.0% 16.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 4.7
12-6 7.5% 10.2% 10.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.7
11-7 8.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 8.2
10-8 9.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.3
9-9 10.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.2
8-10 10.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.2
7-11 10.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
6-12 8.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.7
5-13 7.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%