Preseason Rankings
Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#182
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.5#328
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#231
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 17.5% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 12.9 14.1
.500 or above 52.5% 75.1% 42.2%
.500 or above in Conference 65.7% 80.7% 58.8%
Conference Champion 12.9% 21.4% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 1.7% 6.6%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round10.5% 17.1% 7.4%
Second Round1.5% 3.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 49 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 146   @ Iona L 64-69 31%    
  Nov 12, 2021 141   East Tennessee St. W 65-64 52%    
  Nov 18, 2021 178   Charlotte W 62-59 60%    
  Nov 22, 2021 181   Delaware L 65-66 50%    
  Nov 29, 2021 213   Hartford W 67-62 66%    
  Dec 10, 2021 109   @ Furman L 63-71 25%    
  Dec 16, 2021 10   @ Duke L 58-78 6%    
  Dec 21, 2021 22   @ North Carolina L 63-80 8%    
  Dec 30, 2021 171   Louisiana W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 01, 2022 269   Louisiana Monroe W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 06, 2022 214   @ South Alabama L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 08, 2022 243   @ Troy W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 13, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 190   @ Coastal Carolina L 69-72 42%    
  Jan 20, 2022 121   @ Georgia St. L 67-74 29%    
  Jan 22, 2022 245   @ Georgia Southern W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 27, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 29, 2022 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 03, 2022 174   @ Texas St. L 59-63 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 224   @ Texas Arlington L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 10, 2022 245   Georgia Southern W 68-61 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 121   Georgia St. L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 17, 2022 243   Troy W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 214   South Alabama W 69-64 65%    
  Feb 24, 2022 277   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 26, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.5 3.0 1.6 0.5 12.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.1 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.6 6.2 7.8 9.0 9.8 10.3 10.5 9.6 8.5 6.7 4.9 3.3 1.6 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 98.8% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 91.5% 3.0    2.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 71.5% 3.5    2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.3% 2.8    1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.8% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 8.3 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 71.8% 61.7% 10.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 26.3%
17-1 1.6% 61.1% 54.2% 6.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 15.1%
16-2 3.3% 43.7% 40.2% 3.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 5.8%
15-3 4.9% 32.4% 31.5% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 1.3%
14-4 6.7% 24.7% 24.4% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.1 0.4%
13-5 8.5% 18.2% 18.1% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 7.0 0.1%
12-6 9.6% 13.8% 13.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 8.3
11-7 10.5% 8.3% 8.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 9.6
10-8 10.3% 5.1% 5.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.7
9-9 9.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
8-10 9.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
7-11 7.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.7
6-12 6.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.8% 10.4% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.1 89.2 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 17.1 17.1 31.7 34.1
Lose Out 0.0%