Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.2#59
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.3% 5.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 11.3% 12.1% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 23.9% 25.5% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 35.9% 38.1% 9.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.1% 66.9% 30.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.9% 62.7% 27.9%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 7.9
.500 or above 85.1% 87.5% 56.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 76.9% 49.2%
Conference Champion 14.0% 14.9% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.8% 6.9%
First Four4.1% 4.1% 3.6%
First Round62.1% 64.8% 28.1%
Second Round41.8% 43.9% 15.3%
Sweet Sixteen21.3% 22.6% 6.0%
Elite Eight10.5% 11.2% 2.3%
Final Four5.0% 5.3% 0.7%
Championship Game2.3% 2.5% 0.3%
National Champion1.1% 1.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 6
Quad 25 - 39 - 9
Quad 36 - 116 - 10
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 158   Morehead St. W 80-65 92%    
  Nov 12, 2021 269   Louisiana Monroe W 85-63 97%    
  Nov 19, 2021 177   South Florida W 79-66 87%    
  Nov 24, 2021 25   Connecticut L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 01, 2021 68   Central Florida W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 04, 2021 126   Yale W 83-70 85%    
  Dec 11, 2021 75   Nebraska W 83-78 67%    
  Dec 14, 2021 318   North Alabama W 90-65 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 79   @ Saint Louis W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 22, 2021 125   Murray St. W 80-67 85%    
  Dec 29, 2021 36   LSU W 84-80 62%    
  Jan 04, 2022 104   @ South Carolina W 85-80 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 33   Florida W 79-75 61%    
  Jan 11, 2022 15   @ Alabama L 81-86 34%    
  Jan 15, 2022 66   @ Mississippi W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 19, 2022 133   Georgia W 89-76 86%    
  Jan 22, 2022 14   Kentucky W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 25, 2022 84   @ Missouri W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 40   Oklahoma W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 01, 2022 15   Alabama W 84-83 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 133   @ Georgia W 86-79 71%    
  Feb 08, 2022 17   @ Arkansas L 79-83 37%    
  Feb 12, 2022 94   Texas A&M W 77-67 78%    
  Feb 16, 2022 92   Vanderbilt W 82-72 78%    
  Feb 19, 2022 33   @ Florida L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 23, 2022 66   Mississippi W 74-67 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 23   @ Tennessee L 72-76 39%    
  Mar 02, 2022 56   @ Mississippi St. W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 104   South Carolina W 88-77 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.9 3.7 2.2 0.7 14.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.1 1.4 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 4.1 1.6 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.8 9.4 10.4 11.0 11.1 10.4 8.8 6.5 4.2 2.3 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.3% 2.2    2.0 0.2
16-2 88.2% 3.7    2.8 0.9 0.0
15-3 60.5% 3.9    2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 30.3% 2.7    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 8.5 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 57.7% 42.3% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.3% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.2% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 2.0 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.5% 99.9% 27.8% 72.1% 2.9 1.1 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 8.8% 99.7% 20.4% 79.2% 4.0 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 10.4% 97.8% 15.7% 82.1% 5.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.4%
12-6 11.1% 93.2% 9.9% 83.3% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 92.4%
11-7 11.0% 83.1% 6.1% 77.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 82.0%
10-8 10.4% 63.4% 3.1% 60.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.8 62.3%
9-9 9.4% 39.9% 1.2% 38.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.6 39.1%
8-10 7.8% 17.0% 1.0% 15.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.5 16.1%
7-11 6.1% 4.4% 0.6% 3.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.9 3.8%
6-12 4.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.6%
5-13 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 3.0
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 64.1% 10.7% 53.5% 6.0 5.3 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 35.9 59.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.7 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.7 22.3