Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#285
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#249
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#306
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 6.4% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.6 15.3
.500 or above 26.2% 55.5% 21.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.2% 69.9% 44.5%
Conference Champion 2.6% 6.4% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 2.0% 8.1%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round2.4% 6.1% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 611 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 140   @ Southern Illinois L 62-74 14%    
  Nov 16, 2021 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-78 33%    
  Nov 20, 2021 87   @ Dayton L 60-76 8%    
  Nov 26, 2021 332   @ Howard W 79-78 55%    
  Nov 29, 2021 80   @ TCU L 62-79 8%    
  Dec 11, 2021 280   @ North Florida L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 14, 2021 177   @ South Florida L 64-73 22%    
  Dec 18, 2021 92   @ Vanderbilt L 65-81 10%    
  Dec 22, 2021 100   Western Kentucky L 67-76 23%    
  Dec 30, 2021 349   Tennessee Martin W 78-66 83%    
  Jan 01, 2022 268   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 06, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 74-67 70%    
  Jan 08, 2022 158   Morehead St. L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 13, 2022 81   @ Belmont L 67-84 9%    
  Jan 15, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 20, 2022 349   @ Tennessee Martin W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 289   @ Tennessee St. L 73-76 42%    
  Jan 27, 2022 81   Belmont L 70-81 20%    
  Jan 29, 2022 301   @ Tennessee Tech L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 03, 2022 125   Murray St. L 66-73 30%    
  Feb 05, 2022 158   @ Morehead St. L 63-73 21%    
  Feb 10, 2022 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 12, 2022 289   Tennessee St. W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 17, 2022 125   @ Murray St. L 63-76 16%    
  Feb 19, 2022 301   Tennessee Tech W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 24, 2022 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-72 54%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.9 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.6 5.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.5 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 10th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.8 5.6 7.7 9.5 10.9 11.1 11.3 10.2 9.0 6.8 5.1 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-2 78.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 49.8% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 17.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 69.9% 61.3% 8.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.2%
17-1 0.3% 41.1% 41.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 31.0% 30.7% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4%
15-3 1.8% 21.1% 21.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-4 2.9% 14.9% 14.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.5
13-5 5.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 4.5
12-6 6.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.5
11-7 9.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.7
10-8 10.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.0
9-9 11.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 11.3
8-10 11.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.1
7-11 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.9
6-12 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.5
5-13 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-14 5.6% 5.6
3-15 3.8% 3.8
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%