Preseason Rankings
Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#165
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#312
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#136
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 48.0% 86.6% 46.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 96.6% 80.8%
Conference Champion 18.9% 42.2% 18.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.1% 1.6%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 21 - 21 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 49 - 313 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 5   @ Purdue L 59-78 3%    
  Nov 13, 2021 125   @ Murray St. L 65-71 30%    
  Nov 17, 2021 49   @ St. Mary's L 58-71 13%    
  Nov 19, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 67-91 2%    
  Nov 22, 2021 3   UCLA L 58-75 7%    
  Nov 23, 2021 279   Central Michigan W 79-72 71%    
  Nov 30, 2021 32   @ West Virginia L 64-79 11%    
  Dec 15, 2021 186   @ South Dakota L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 18, 2021 152   @ Miami (OH) L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 21, 2021 82   Loyola Marymount L 67-71 39%    
  Dec 29, 2021 157   @ Bradley L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 04, 2022 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 08, 2022 180   Eastern Kentucky W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 11, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 82-67 88%    
  Jan 15, 2022 226   @ Lipscomb W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 18, 2022 318   North Alabama W 78-66 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 302   Jacksonville W 75-64 81%    
  Jan 27, 2022 251   @ Stetson W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 03, 2022 110   Liberty L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 311   Kennesaw St. W 76-64 82%    
  Feb 09, 2022 280   @ North Florida W 73-69 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 318   @ North Alabama W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 16, 2022 334   @ Central Arkansas W 79-70 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 164   Jacksonville St. W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 226   Lipscomb W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 180   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-79 43%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 6.1 4.6 1.7 18.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.1 5.1 1.7 0.1 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.1 3.7 0.8 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.0 6.9 9.0 11.0 12.0 12.7 12.0 10.2 7.9 4.7 1.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
15-1 97.3% 4.6    4.0 0.6
14-2 77.7% 6.1    3.9 2.0 0.2
13-3 42.5% 4.3    1.8 2.0 0.6 0.0
12-4 15.0% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 11.8 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.7% 1.7
15-1 4.7% 4.7
14-2 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 7.9
13-3 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 10.2
12-4 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
11-5 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7
10-6 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
9-7 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
8-8 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-9 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.8
6-10 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-11 3.3% 3.3
4-12 1.9% 1.9
3-13 1.0% 1.0
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%