IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
California Baptist
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.7	#215
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.7	#77
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.1	#141

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.8	#293

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.8	n/a

.500 or above	66.3%	66.9%	18.3%
.500 or above in Conference	64.5%	64.9%	27.6%
Conference Champion	6.1%	6.1%	0.2%
Last Place in Conference	1.0%	0.9%	4.8%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 4	15 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 13, 2021	358	Mississippi Valley	W	94-69	99%
Nov 16, 2021	262	Jackson St.	W	76-70	70%
Nov 18, 2021	322	San Jose St.	W	88-78	80%
Nov 21, 2021	201	Northern Colorado	W	78-76	58%
Nov 24, 2021	7	@ Texas	L	66-88	3%
Dec 02, 2021	305	Cal Poly	W	79-71	76%
Dec 07, 2021	313	North Dakota	W	81-72	77%
Dec 12, 2021	148	@ UC Riverside	L	70-77	28%
Dec 18, 2021	31	@ Arizona	L	68-86	8%
Dec 21, 2021	268	Southeast Missouri St.	W	80-74	69%
Jan 01, 2022	179	Seattle	W	79-78	52%
Jan 08, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	87-71	90%
Jan 12, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	87-79	74%
Jan 15, 2022	209	Utah Valley	W	80-78	58%
Jan 20, 2022	185	@ Tarleton St.	L	69-74	35%
Jan 22, 2022	167	@ Abilene Christian	L	73-79	32%
Jan 26, 2022	196	Sam Houston St.	W	81-79	56%
Jan 29, 2022	153	Stephen F. Austin	L	78-79	48%
Feb 03, 2022	102	@ New Mexico St.	L	67-78	20%
Feb 05, 2022	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	69-77	28%
Feb 10, 2022	308	Lamar	W	81-72	75%
Feb 12, 2022	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	82-73	75%
Feb 16, 2022	142	Grand Canyon	L	72-74	45%
Feb 19, 2022	179	@ Seattle	L	76-81	34%
Feb 24, 2022	303	@ Dixie St.	W	84-82	57%
Feb 26, 2022	209	@ Utah Valley	L	77-81	39%
Mar 02, 2022	357	Chicago St.	W	90-68	96%
Mar 05, 2022	308	@ Lamar	W	78-75	58%
Projected Record						15 - 13	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.1	1.9	1.6	0.8	0.2		6.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.7	2.3	2.9	1.7	0.4	0.0			8.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.7	2.9	3.8	1.6	0.2	0.0				9.1	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.2	4.1	1.6	0.2	0.0					9.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.3	4.8	1.9	0.2							10.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.6	3.0	4.9	2.1	0.2	0.0							10.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	2.8	5.0	2.4	0.2	0.0								10.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	2.5	4.3	2.3	0.3	0.0									9.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.4	2.2	3.8	2.3	0.3	0.0										9.2	9th
10th				0.0	0.5	2.0	2.9	1.7	0.3	0.0											7.4	10th
11th			0.1	0.5	1.5	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.0												5.1	11th
12th		0.1	0.5	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0													2.7	12th
13th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0																0.4	13th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.5	2.9	4.7	6.7	8.7	10.3	11.3	11.7	11.1	9.7	8.1	5.7	3.8	2.1	0.9	0.2			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	95.9%	0.8		0.7	0.1	0.0
16-2	78.1%	1.6		1.1	0.4	0.0
15-3	50.0%	1.9		0.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
14-4	19.9%	1.1		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.0%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.1%	6.1		3.3	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%																							0.2
17-1	0.9%		0.8%	0.8%		12.3													0.0	0.0				0.9
16-2	2.1%		1.1%	1.1%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		2.0
15-3	3.8%		2.3%	2.3%		14.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.7
14-4	5.7%		2.9%	2.9%		14.5														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	5.6
13-5	8.1%		1.7%	1.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	7.9
12-6	9.7%		1.2%	1.2%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	9.6
11-7	11.1%		0.6%	0.6%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	11.0
10-8	11.7%		0.3%	0.3%		15.9																0.0	0.0	11.6
9-9	11.3%		0.1%	0.1%		15.7																0.0	0.0	11.2
8-10	10.3%																							10.3
7-11	8.7%																							8.7
6-12	6.7%																							6.7
5-13	4.7%																							4.7
4-14	2.9%																							2.9
3-15	1.5%																							1.5
2-16	0.7%																							0.7
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		0.7%	0.7%	0.0%	14.8													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%