Preseason Rankings
College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#235
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.2#342
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#212
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#262
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 6.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 15.4
.500 or above 33.5% 34.9% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 44.8% 46.3% 19.0%
Conference Champion 6.3% 6.5% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 13.7% 33.3%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round5.4% 5.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 74 - 13
Quad 410 - 514 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 81-63 95%    
  Nov 12, 2021 226   Lipscomb W 69-66 60%    
  Nov 13, 2021 276   Loyola Maryland W 70-65 68%    
  Nov 16, 2021 22   North Carolina L 66-80 11%    
  Nov 22, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 62-81 6%    
  Nov 27, 2021 135   @ Chattanooga L 63-72 22%    
  Nov 30, 2021 136   Tulane L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 03, 2021 109   @ Furman L 63-74 18%    
  Dec 07, 2021 136   @ Tulane L 62-71 23%    
  Dec 12, 2021 319   Presbyterian W 69-61 74%    
  Dec 16, 2021 251   @ Stetson L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 19, 2021 101   Rhode Island L 64-73 23%    
  Dec 22, 2021 131   @ Old Dominion L 62-71 22%    
  Dec 29, 2021 175   Drexel L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 31, 2021 181   Delaware L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 03, 2022 134   @ Northeastern L 62-71 23%    
  Jan 05, 2022 192   @ Hofstra L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 09, 2022 217   Elon W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 11, 2022 295   William & Mary W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 17, 2022 266   UNC Wilmington W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 20, 2022 239   @ Towson L 66-69 42%    
  Jan 22, 2022 172   @ James Madison L 70-77 29%    
  Jan 27, 2022 192   Hofstra W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 134   Northeastern L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 03, 2022 295   @ William & Mary W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 05, 2022 217   @ Elon L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 12, 2022 266   @ UNC Wilmington L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 17, 2022 172   James Madison L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 239   Towson W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 24, 2022 181   @ Delaware L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 175   @ Drexel L 62-69 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 3.8 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.7 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 9.7 10th
Total 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.9 6.7 8.7 9.5 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.3 7.9 6.3 4.6 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.8% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 80.5% 1.5    1.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 49.4% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.8% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 66.8% 59.9% 6.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2%
17-1 0.4% 58.3% 51.6% 6.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13.7%
16-2 1.1% 42.6% 40.6% 2.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.3%
15-3 1.9% 31.9% 31.4% 0.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.7%
14-4 3.3% 24.3% 24.1% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 0.2%
13-5 4.6% 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.8 0.1%
12-6 6.3% 13.2% 13.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 5.5
11-7 7.9% 7.7% 7.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7.3
10-8 9.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.8
9-9 9.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.5
8-10 10.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.0
7-11 10.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
6-12 9.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.4
5-13 8.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.6
4-14 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
3-15 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9
2-16 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-17 1.5% 1.5
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 94.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%