IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Davidson
Atlantic 10
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.4	#98
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.4	#351
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.6	#69

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.8	#122

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.5%	1.8%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	2.9%	3.5%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.9%	19.8%	5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	10.3%	12.4%	2.3%
Average Seed	9.6	9.5	11.0

.500 or above	75.1%	81.3%	49.4%
.500 or above in Conference	73.4%	77.8%	55.5%
Conference Champion	9.5%	11.0%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	1.1%	4.1%

First Four	3.2%	3.8%	0.9%
First Round	15.3%	17.9%	4.7%
Second Round	6.7%	8.0%	1.6%
Sweet Sixteen	2.4%	2.8%	0.5%
Elite Eight	0.9%	1.1%	0.1%
Final Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 2	2 - 3	3 - 7
Quad 3	6 - 4	9 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 1	17 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	181	Delaware	W	70-61	80%
Nov 13, 2021	67	San Francisco	L	66-69	40%
Nov 18, 2021	102	New Mexico St.	W	64-63	51%
Nov 27, 2021	282	Robert Morris	W	76-61	90%
Nov 30, 2021	178	@ Charlotte	W	63-60	60%
Dec 04, 2021	295	William & Mary	W	75-59	90%
Dec 12, 2021	134	@ Northeastern	W	66-65	50%
Dec 18, 2021	264	Radford	W	70-56	87%
Dec 22, 2021	46	Loyola Chicago	L	61-63	44%
Dec 30, 2021	162	Duquesne	W	70-62	74%
Jan 02, 2022	77	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	65-70	35%
Jan 05, 2022	193	@ Saint Joseph's	W	74-70	63%
Jan 08, 2022	101	Rhode Island	W	69-66	60%
Jan 11, 2022	119	Massachusetts	W	73-68	65%
Jan 14, 2022	57	@ Richmond	L	65-72	30%
Jan 22, 2022	275	@ Fordham	W	63-55	75%
Jan 26, 2022	77	Virginia Commonwealth	W	68-67	54%
Jan 29, 2022	210	La Salle	W	73-62	80%
Feb 01, 2022	28	@ St. Bonaventure	L	59-69	22%
Feb 05, 2022	238	@ George Washington	W	71-64	70%
Feb 09, 2022	193	Saint Joseph's	W	77-67	78%
Feb 12, 2022	101	@ Rhode Island	L	66-69	41%
Feb 19, 2022	79	Saint Louis	W	68-66	54%
Feb 23, 2022	162	@ Duquesne	W	67-65	56%
Feb 26, 2022	275	Fordham	W	66-52	87%
Mar 02, 2022	169	George Mason	W	70-62	74%
Mar 05, 2022	87	@ Dayton	L	62-66	38%
Projected Record						16 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.5	2.7	2.8	1.6	0.4		9.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.7	2.9	4.2	2.7	0.8	0.1			11.5	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	3.6	4.7	2.2	0.4	0.0				11.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.4	4.5	2.0	0.2						10.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	3.1	4.8	2.0	0.1	0.0						10.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.5	4.5	2.0	0.2	0.0							9.5	6th
7th								0.1	1.7	4.0	2.4	0.3	0.0								8.5	7th
8th							0.1	1.0	3.3	2.4	0.3	0.0									7.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.7	2.7	2.4	0.5	0.0										6.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.4	1.9	2.2	0.6	0.0											5.1	10th
11th			0.0	0.0	0.3	1.3	1.8	0.6	0.0												3.9	11th
12th			0.0	0.2	0.8	1.1	0.4	0.0	0.0												2.7	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.0														1.6	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0															0.9	14th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.8	3.2	4.9	6.7	8.3	9.9	11.1	11.5	11.1	10.2	8.1	5.9	3.6	1.7	0.4			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	96.2%	1.6		1.4	0.2
16-2	78.0%	2.8		1.9	0.8	0.1
15-3	46.5%	2.7		1.3	1.2	0.3	0.0
14-4	18.5%	1.5		0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	3.9%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.5%	9.5		5.4	3.1	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		99.5%	54.3%	45.1%	3.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0					0.0		98.8%
17-1	1.7%		92.9%	40.6%	52.3%	5.4		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		88.0%
16-2	3.6%		84.4%	30.2%	54.2%	7.8		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0				0.6		77.7%
15-3	5.9%		64.9%	20.9%	43.9%	9.6				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0			2.1		55.6%
14-4	8.1%		41.2%	15.0%	26.1%	10.7					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.2	0.0			4.8		30.8%
13-5	10.2%		23.5%	11.8%	11.7%	11.4								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0		7.8		13.3%
12-6	11.1%		11.4%	7.5%	3.9%	11.9									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0		9.8		4.2%
11-7	11.5%		5.4%	4.2%	1.2%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		10.9		1.3%
10-8	11.1%		2.3%	2.1%	0.2%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8		0.2%
9-9	9.9%		1.2%	1.1%	0.1%	13.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.8		0.1%
8-10	8.3%		0.7%	0.6%	0.0%	13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.2		0.0%
7-11	6.7%		0.2%	0.2%		14.3														0.0		0.0	0.0	6.6
6-12	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
5-13	3.2%																							3.2
4-14	1.8%																							1.8
3-15	1.1%																							1.1
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		16.9%	7.4%	9.5%	9.6		0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.6	2.2	3.3	3.7	1.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	83.1		10.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	2.0	30.3	42.6	23.4	1.8	1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	2.2	57.1	26.5		2.0			14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.7	29.8	7.4	42.6	13.8		6.4