Preseason Rankings
Dixie St.
Western Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#303
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.6#16
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#288
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#299
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 1.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.0 14.5
.500 or above 14.0% 62.7% 14.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 59.4% 21.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 4.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 0.2% 7.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 1.9% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 46 - 68 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 72-104 0.1%   
  Nov 12, 2021 122   Southern Utah L 77-85 23%    
  Nov 19, 2021 174   Texas St. L 65-73 25%    
  Nov 22, 2021 20   @ USC L 63-87 2%    
  Nov 27, 2021 129   Weber St. L 80-87 27%    
  Dec 11, 2021 344   Denver W 85-77 75%    
  Dec 18, 2021 313   @ North Dakota L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 22, 2021 122   @ Southern Utah L 74-88 14%    
  Dec 30, 2021 185   Tarleton St. L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 01, 2022 167   Abilene Christian L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 209   @ Utah Valley L 75-84 24%    
  Jan 12, 2022 215   @ California Baptist L 79-87 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 179   @ Seattle L 74-84 21%    
  Jan 20, 2022 308   Lamar W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 22, 2022 310   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-76 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 357   @ Chicago St. W 85-74 81%    
  Feb 03, 2022 196   @ Sam Houston St. L 76-85 23%    
  Feb 05, 2022 153   @ Stephen F. Austin L 73-85 18%    
  Feb 10, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 68-78 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 142   Grand Canyon L 70-77 30%    
  Feb 16, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 65-81 10%    
  Feb 19, 2022 209   Utah Valley L 78-81 42%    
  Feb 24, 2022 215   California Baptist L 82-84 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 179   Seattle L 77-81 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 167   @ Abilene Christian L 71-82 20%    
  Mar 05, 2022 142   @ Grand Canyon L 67-80 16%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 5.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 16.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 4.1 6.4 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 19.2 11th
12th 2.3 5.1 5.6 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 17.5 12th
13th 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 13th
Total 1.0 3.7 7.0 10.3 12.1 12.4 12.3 10.9 9.0 7.1 5.3 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 87.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 64.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 25.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.1
16-2 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.4% 3.1% 3.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 0.8% 5.2% 5.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-6 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
11-7 3.6% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
10-8 5.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
9-9 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 7.1
8-10 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.0
7-11 10.9% 10.9
6-12 12.3% 12.3
5-13 12.4% 12.4
4-14 12.1% 12.1
3-15 10.3% 10.3
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 3.7% 3.7
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%