Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#183
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#196
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#164
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 1.7% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 11.0
.500 or above 29.9% 30.5% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 15.8% 16.1% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.6% 31.8% 62.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 21 - 52 - 10
Quad 33 - 55 - 15
Quad 47 - 212 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 85-64 97%    
  Nov 12, 2021 265   Canisius W 77-69 76%    
  Nov 14, 2021 309   Western Carolina W 80-69 82%    
  Nov 18, 2021 40   Oklahoma L 63-75 15%    
  Nov 27, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 86-72 87%    
  Nov 30, 2021 131   Old Dominion L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 04, 2021 225   Gardner-Webb W 73-67 68%    
  Dec 07, 2021 286   N.C. A&T W 78-69 77%    
  Dec 17, 2021 110   Liberty L 63-68 33%    
  Dec 21, 2021 195   Southern Miss W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 29, 2021 54   Wichita St. L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 01, 2022 177   @ South Florida L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 05, 2022 136   Tulane L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 120   @ Temple L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 12, 2022 90   @ Cincinnati L 67-77 22%    
  Jan 15, 2022 11   Memphis L 66-79 15%    
  Jan 18, 2022 68   Central Florida L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 22, 2022 13   @ Houston L 56-75 7%    
  Jan 27, 2022 11   @ Memphis L 63-82 7%    
  Jan 30, 2022 90   Cincinnati L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 02, 2022 120   Temple L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 136   @ Tulane L 66-72 32%    
  Feb 08, 2022 108   @ Tulsa L 63-71 25%    
  Feb 12, 2022 62   SMU L 70-77 30%    
  Feb 20, 2022 68   @ Central Florida L 63-75 17%    
  Feb 23, 2022 177   South Florida W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 108   Tulsa L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 62-75 15%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.1 3.5 0.6 0.0 15.1 9th
10th 0.3 2.5 6.0 6.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 2.8 6.2 7.5 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 23.5 11th
Total 2.8 6.4 10.0 11.8 12.7 12.4 11.3 9.4 7.4 5.7 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 61.8% 0.0    0.0
16-2 77.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 59.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 22.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.1% 84.4% 20.9% 63.4% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.2%
15-3 0.2% 78.0% 22.8% 55.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.5%
14-4 0.5% 58.4% 11.8% 46.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 52.8%
13-5 0.9% 30.9% 7.9% 22.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 24.9%
12-6 1.7% 17.5% 3.8% 13.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 14.3%
11-7 2.7% 6.8% 2.4% 4.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.4%
10-8 3.9% 3.5% 2.0% 1.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.5%
9-9 5.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.3%
8-10 7.4% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
7-11 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4
6-12 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 11.3
5-13 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 12.4
4-14 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.7
3-15 11.8% 11.8
2-16 10.0% 10.0
1-17 6.4% 6.4
0-18 2.8% 2.8
Total 100% 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%