Preseason Rankings
George Mason
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#169
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#206
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#154
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.6
.500 or above 38.9% 49.6% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 36.6% 44.3% 21.9%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.6% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 7.4% 17.7%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round3.1% 4.3% 0.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 65.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 35 - 67 - 15
Quad 48 - 315 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 188   Stony Brook W 70-66 66%    
  Nov 12, 2021 187   Penn W 73-69 65%    
  Nov 14, 2021 256   Morgan St. W 79-71 77%    
  Nov 17, 2021 16   @ Maryland L 58-75 7%    
  Nov 19, 2021 172   @ James Madison L 75-78 40%    
  Nov 22, 2021 95   Washington L 71-76 32%    
  Nov 23, 2021 63   Nevada L 69-78 23%    
  Nov 24, 2021 99   South Dakota St. L 74-79 33%    
  Dec 04, 2021 131   Old Dominion W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 07, 2021 184   Navy W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 18, 2021 133   @ Georgia L 74-79 33%    
  Dec 21, 2021 259   American W 72-64 75%    
  Dec 23, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 86-71 88%    
  Dec 30, 2021 77   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-76 21%    
  Jan 02, 2022 162   @ Duquesne L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 05, 2022 101   Rhode Island L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 193   Saint Joseph's W 78-73 65%    
  Jan 11, 2022 57   @ Richmond L 66-78 17%    
  Jan 17, 2022 238   @ George Washington W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 87   Dayton L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 26, 2022 28   St. Bonaventure L 62-71 23%    
  Jan 30, 2022 119   @ Massachusetts L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 02, 2022 79   Saint Louis L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 05, 2022 210   @ La Salle L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 09, 2022 57   Richmond L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 77   Virginia Commonwealth L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 16, 2022 193   @ Saint Joseph's L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 20, 2022 275   @ Fordham W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 27, 2022 238   George Washington W 75-68 72%    
  Mar 02, 2022 98   @ Davidson L 62-70 26%    
  Mar 05, 2022 119   Massachusetts L 74-75 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 1.8 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.8 0.9 0.1 10.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.5 1.0 0.1 9.8 12th
13th 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 8.9 13th
14th 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.4 14th
Total 0.6 2.0 4.1 6.3 8.2 9.9 11.0 11.0 10.5 9.5 8.2 6.5 4.9 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 81.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 53.9% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 21.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 83.7% 27.0% 56.7% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.7%
16-2 0.6% 75.5% 27.0% 48.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 66.4%
15-3 1.1% 54.9% 19.4% 35.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 44.1%
14-4 2.2% 34.0% 12.5% 21.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 24.5%
13-5 3.3% 17.9% 8.0% 9.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7 10.8%
12-6 4.9% 8.2% 5.0% 3.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5 3.4%
11-7 6.5% 3.9% 2.7% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 1.3%
10-8 8.2% 1.4% 1.2% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.3%
9-9 9.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.0%
8-10 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
7-11 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
5-13 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.8
4-14 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 4.1% 4.1
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 3.5% 1.6% 1.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.5 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%