Preseason Rankings
Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#142
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#316
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#156
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 17.8% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 14.7
.500 or above 78.7% 82.3% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 86.7% 66.3%
Conference Champion 19.0% 20.5% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round16.2% 17.4% 5.9%
Second Round2.9% 3.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 89.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 414 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 312   Grambling St. W 75-62 90%    
  Nov 12, 2021 280   North Florida W 76-65 84%    
  Nov 17, 2021 232   Prairie View W 73-64 77%    
  Nov 22, 2021 156   Wyoming W 73-69 64%    
  Nov 27, 2021 147   @ Pepperdine L 71-74 41%    
  Nov 29, 2021 82   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-71 25%    
  Dec 02, 2021 207   Texas San Antonio W 77-70 72%    
  Dec 04, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 87-58 99%    
  Dec 09, 2021 61   @ Arizona St. L 69-79 20%    
  Dec 18, 2021 67   San Francisco L 66-73 30%    
  Dec 21, 2021 63   @ Nevada L 67-77 21%    
  Dec 30, 2021 357   Chicago St. W 84-57 98%    
  Jan 06, 2022 310   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 308   @ Lamar W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 13, 2022 167   Abilene Christian W 71-66 64%    
  Jan 15, 2022 185   Tarleton St. W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 20, 2022 153   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 196   @ Sam Houston St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 29, 2022 102   @ New Mexico St. L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 03, 2022 179   Seattle W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 215   California Baptist W 77-69 72%    
  Feb 10, 2022 209   @ Utah Valley W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 303   @ Dixie St. W 77-70 70%    
  Feb 16, 2022 215   @ California Baptist W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 23, 2022 357   @ Chicago St. W 81-60 95%    
  Feb 26, 2022 196   Sam Houston St. W 76-69 69%    
  Mar 03, 2022 209   Utah Valley W 74-67 71%    
  Mar 05, 2022 303   Dixie St. W 80-67 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.1 5.7 3.9 1.4 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.8 4.0 1.1 0.0 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.7 5.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 1.9 0.2 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 1.9 0.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.8 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 4.3 5.5 7.7 9.5 11.0 11.7 11.9 11.2 9.5 6.8 3.9 1.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 99.1% 3.9    3.6 0.3
16-2 84.1% 5.7    4.0 1.6 0.1
15-3 53.4% 5.1    2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 21.2% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 12.0 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 73.3% 62.4% 10.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 29.1%
17-1 3.9% 58.8% 53.9% 4.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.6 10.6%
16-2 6.8% 44.7% 42.9% 1.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.8 3.0%
15-3 9.5% 34.7% 34.3% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 6.2 0.6%
14-4 11.2% 24.3% 24.2% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 8.5 0.1%
13-5 11.9% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 10.1
12-6 11.7% 10.4% 10.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 10.5
11-7 11.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10.4
10-8 9.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.1
9-9 7.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.5
8-10 5.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.5
7-11 4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.7% 2.7
5-13 1.5% 1.5
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.6% 16.1% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.2 3.9 4.0 3.1 1.5 83.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.5 3.1 3.1 12.6 36.8 23.8 17.5 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.6 40.0 57.1 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 81.3% 6.7 21.9 18.8 21.9 18.8