Preseason Rankings
Houston
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.9#333
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 8.7% 9.0% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 17.4% 17.9% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 32.8% 33.7% 6.1%
Top 6 Seed 44.9% 46.1% 11.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.7% 77.0% 38.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.1% 66.7% 29.2%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 8.1
.500 or above 97.1% 97.6% 83.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 94.2% 78.9%
Conference Champion 38.0% 38.8% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four3.9% 3.8% 4.6%
First Round73.9% 75.2% 36.4%
Second Round53.4% 54.6% 20.0%
Sweet Sixteen30.6% 31.4% 8.3%
Elite Eight16.7% 17.2% 2.9%
Final Four8.9% 9.2% 1.1%
Championship Game4.7% 4.8% 0.5%
National Champion2.3% 2.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 29 - 6
Quad 38 - 116 - 7
Quad 48 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 192   Hofstra W 78-59 97%    
  Nov 12, 2021 173   Rice W 80-62 95%    
  Nov 16, 2021 29   Virginia W 59-53 69%    
  Nov 22, 2021 64   Butler W 66-60 71%    
  Nov 30, 2021 338   Northwestern St. W 86-56 99%    
  Dec 03, 2021 206   Bryant W 85-65 95%    
  Dec 06, 2021 347   Alcorn St. W 84-51 99.6%   
  Dec 11, 2021 15   @ Alabama L 72-75 41%    
  Dec 14, 2021 171   Louisiana W 80-62 93%    
  Dec 18, 2021 35   Oklahoma St. W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 22, 2021 174   Texas St. W 69-51 93%    
  Dec 28, 2021 90   Cincinnati W 74-62 83%    
  Jan 02, 2022 120   @ Temple W 70-61 76%    
  Jan 05, 2022 177   @ South Florida W 70-58 84%    
  Jan 08, 2022 54   Wichita St. W 69-60 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 108   @ Tulsa W 67-59 73%    
  Jan 18, 2022 177   South Florida W 73-55 93%    
  Jan 22, 2022 183   East Carolina W 75-56 93%    
  Jan 29, 2022 68   @ Central Florida W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 02, 2022 136   Tulane W 73-57 90%    
  Feb 06, 2022 90   @ Cincinnati W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 09, 2022 62   @ SMU W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 11   Memphis W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 17, 2022 68   Central Florida W 70-60 78%    
  Feb 20, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 23, 2022 136   @ Tulane W 70-60 78%    
  Feb 27, 2022 62   SMU W 74-65 77%    
  Mar 03, 2022 120   Temple W 73-58 88%    
  Mar 06, 2022 11   @ Memphis L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.2 8.7 10.7 8.9 4.2 38.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.0 7.8 5.1 1.6 0.0 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.3 4.5 1.5 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 1.4 0.2 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.2 6.0 8.0 10.4 12.1 13.5 14.0 12.3 8.9 4.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
17-1 100.0% 8.9    8.4 0.5
16-2 87.1% 10.7    8.3 2.4 0.0
15-3 62.3% 8.7    5.2 3.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 30.8% 4.2    1.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
13-5 9.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.0% 38.0 28.1 8.4 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.2% 100.0% 72.7% 27.3% 1.5 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 8.9% 100.0% 62.5% 37.5% 2.1 3.4 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 12.3% 99.6% 49.6% 49.9% 3.3 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
15-3 14.0% 98.1% 39.2% 58.9% 4.9 0.5 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 96.9%
14-4 13.5% 94.5% 30.9% 63.6% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.7 92.0%
13-5 12.1% 84.2% 22.4% 61.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 79.7%
12-6 10.4% 67.2% 15.5% 51.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.4 61.2%
11-7 8.0% 49.8% 11.3% 38.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 43.4%
10-8 6.0% 30.0% 8.8% 21.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 23.2%
9-9 4.2% 15.1% 4.8% 10.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 10.7%
8-10 2.8% 6.0% 3.3% 2.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.8%
7-11 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.1%
6-12 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5%
5-13 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 75.7% 30.5% 45.2% 5.7 8.7 8.7 7.6 7.8 6.3 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3 65.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.2 77.0 21.7 0.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 64.8 29.0 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 69.4 25.2 3.7 1.7