IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.2	#223
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.1	#127
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.7	#256

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#195

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.7%	2.2%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.0	12.9	14.3

.500 or above	26.8%	34.5%	9.6%
.500 or above in Conference	20.5%	25.3%	9.5%
Conference Champion	1.2%	1.6%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	30.8%	24.6%	44.9%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
First Round	1.6%	2.1%	0.5%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 3	3 - 7	4 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 4	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	266	UNC Wilmington	W	78-73	69%
Nov 12, 2021	300	@ Eastern Michigan	W	71-70	55%
Nov 16, 2021	125	Murray St.	L	68-71	39%
Nov 20, 2021	294	Bucknell	W	79-72	72%
Nov 23, 2021	79	Saint Louis	L	66-76	19%
Dec 01, 2021	96	Missouri St.	L	70-76	31%
Dec 04, 2021	262	Jackson St.	W	71-66	67%
Dec 11, 2021	357	@ Chicago St.	W	82-66	90%
Dec 18, 2021	199	Ball St.	W	75-73	55%
Dec 21, 2021	207	Texas San Antonio	W	78-76	56%
Dec 29, 2021	43	@ Wisconsin	L	58-75	8%
Jan 02, 2022	189	@ Valparaiso	L	68-73	34%
Jan 05, 2022	46	Loyola Chicago	L	60-71	20%
Jan 08, 2022	198	@ Evansville	L	64-68	36%
Jan 12, 2022	73	@ Drake	L	64-78	13%
Jan 16, 2022	157	Bradley	L	69-70	48%
Jan 19, 2022	96	@ Missouri St.	L	67-79	18%
Jan 23, 2022	198	Evansville	W	67-65	55%
Jan 26, 2022	73	Drake	L	67-75	27%
Jan 29, 2022	107	@ Northern Iowa	L	68-79	19%
Feb 02, 2022	46	@ Loyola Chicago	L	57-74	10%
Feb 05, 2022	140	Southern Illinois	L	67-69	44%
Feb 09, 2022	189	Valparaiso	W	71-70	53%
Feb 12, 2022	176	@ Indiana St.	L	67-73	32%
Feb 15, 2022	107	Northern Iowa	L	71-76	35%
Feb 19, 2022	157	@ Bradley	L	66-73	30%
Feb 22, 2022	140	@ Southern Illinois	L	64-72	26%
Feb 26, 2022	176	Indiana St.	W	70-69	50%
Projected Record						11 - 17	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.1					2.4	2nd
3rd										0.1	0.8	1.5	1.1	0.4	0.1						4.0	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	1.5	2.4	1.3	0.4	0.0							5.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.2	3.1	1.6	0.3	0.0								7.7	5th
6th					0.0	0.1	0.8	3.3	4.0	1.7	0.3	0.0									10.2	6th
7th					0.1	1.5	4.2	4.6	1.7	0.2	0.0										12.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.5	2.8	5.7	4.6	1.7	0.1												15.5	8th
9th		0.1	1.7	4.8	6.6	4.2	1.2	0.1	0.0												18.7	9th
10th	2.2	5.2	6.6	5.2	2.4	0.5	0.1														22.1	10th

Total	2.2	5.3	8.2	10.5	11.9	12.0	10.9	10.1	8.3	6.7	5.1	3.4	2.3	1.5	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	100.0%	0.2		0.1	0.0
15-3	66.7%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	45.9%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-5	15.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0					0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.2%	1.2		0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		67.5%	52.5%	15.0%	7.5		0.0						0.0		0.0				0.0				0.0		31.6%
17-1	0.1%		68.2%	29.9%	38.2%	9.1					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		54.5%
16-2	0.2%		59.8%	42.1%	17.7%	10.2					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		30.5%
15-3	0.4%		39.5%	24.9%	14.6%	11.1						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		19.4%
14-4	0.8%		22.5%	17.7%	4.8%	12.3								0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.6		5.9%
13-5	1.5%		16.6%	14.3%	2.3%	12.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			1.3		2.7%
12-6	2.3%		8.7%	8.2%	0.5%	13.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1		0.5%
11-7	3.4%		5.1%	5.1%		13.6													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	3.3
10-8	5.1%		4.0%	4.0%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	4.9
9-9	6.7%		2.3%	2.3%		14.5														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	6.5
8-10	8.3%		1.1%	1.1%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.2
7-11	10.1%		0.5%	0.5%		15.3														0.0		0.0	0.0	10.1
6-12	10.9%		0.3%	0.3%		15.8																0.0	0.0	10.9
5-13	12.0%		0.1%	0.1%		15.8																0.0	0.0	12.0
4-14	11.9%		0.1%	0.1%		15.7																0.0	0.0	11.9
3-15	10.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
2-16	8.2%																							8.2
1-17	5.3%																							5.3
0-18	2.2%																							2.2

Total	100%		1.7%	1.5%	0.2%	13.0		0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	98.3		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%