Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#176
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#248
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.6% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 13.6
.500 or above 40.5% 50.1% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 37.0% 43.8% 21.6%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.2% 11.9% 25.8%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round4.2% 5.3% 1.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 66 - 13
Quad 47 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 316   @ Green Bay W 72-67 69%    
  Nov 12, 2021 5   @ Purdue L 58-78 3%    
  Nov 18, 2021 131   Old Dominion L 66-69 40%    
  Nov 27, 2021 199   @ Ball St. L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 01, 2021 46   @ Loyola Chicago L 56-70 13%    
  Dec 04, 2021 152   Miami (OH) W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 13, 2021 130   @ North Dakota St. L 64-70 32%    
  Dec 18, 2021 340   Alabama A&M W 72-57 89%    
  Dec 22, 2021 314   @ Northern Illinois W 69-64 67%    
  Dec 29, 2021 336   Coppin St. W 84-70 87%    
  Jan 02, 2022 157   Bradley W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 05, 2022 198   Evansville W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 73   @ Drake L 63-74 19%    
  Jan 11, 2022 107   @ Northern Iowa L 67-75 27%    
  Jan 15, 2022 46   Loyola Chicago L 59-67 27%    
  Jan 19, 2022 140   @ Southern Illinois L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 189   Valparaiso W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 25, 2022 96   Missouri St. L 69-72 41%    
  Jan 30, 2022 157   @ Bradley L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 02, 2022 73   Drake L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 189   @ Valparaiso L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 198   @ Evansville L 63-65 45%    
  Feb 12, 2022 223   Illinois St. W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 15, 2022 96   @ Missouri St. L 66-75 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 140   Southern Illinois W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 23, 2022 107   Northern Iowa L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 223   @ Illinois St. L 69-70 50%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.3 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.6 2.0 3.2 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.6 10th
Total 0.6 2.1 4.2 6.0 8.2 9.7 10.6 10.9 10.8 9.4 8.3 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 92.8% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 72.1% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.7% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.4% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 60.5% 39.5% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 80.1% 47.0% 33.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.4%
16-2 0.6% 65.2% 37.6% 27.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 44.2%
15-3 1.2% 50.1% 31.1% 19.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 27.5%
14-4 2.2% 28.4% 20.5% 7.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 10.0%
13-5 3.5% 19.4% 16.5% 2.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 3.4%
12-6 5.0% 10.6% 10.3% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.4%
11-7 6.6% 6.0% 5.8% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.2%
10-8 8.3% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9 0.1%
9-9 9.4% 2.7% 2.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1
8-10 10.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7
7-11 10.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
5-13 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
4-14 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
3-15 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 4.4% 3.6% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 95.6 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%