IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Atlantic Sun
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.3	#164
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	64.8	#291
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.2	#167

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.1	#173

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	17.2%	31.0%	15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	1.3%	0.1%
Average Seed	14.1	13.1	14.4

.500 or above	70.7%	92.7%	67.5%
.500 or above in Conference	81.8%	93.9%	80.0%
Conference Champion	17.9%	32.1%	15.8%
Last Place in Conference	1.5%	0.2%	1.7%

First Four	1.9%	1.3%	2.0%
First Round	16.4%	30.4%	14.3%
Second Round	2.0%	5.4%	1.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	1.5%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 12.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 3	16 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	54	@ Wichita St.	L	62-74	13%
Nov 13, 2021	340	Alabama A&M	W	73-57	92%
Nov 16, 2021	243	@ Troy	W	70-68	56%
Nov 22, 2021	167	Abilene Christian	W	69-68	50%
Nov 27, 2021	217	@ Elon	W	68-67	50%
Dec 04, 2021	214	South Alabama	W	72-66	69%
Dec 08, 2021	77	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	64-74	21%
Dec 15, 2021	273	Florida International	W	76-67	78%
Dec 18, 2021	15	@ Alabama	L	68-85	8%
Dec 21, 2021	277	@ Arkansas Little Rock	W	69-66	61%
Jan 04, 2022	165	Bellarmine	W	69-66	59%
Jan 08, 2022	318	@ North Alabama	W	74-68	69%
Jan 11, 2022	226	Lipscomb	W	72-65	71%
Jan 15, 2022	180	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	76-78	43%
Jan 18, 2022	334	@ Central Arkansas	W	78-69	75%
Jan 22, 2022	222	Florida Gulf Coast	W	75-69	69%
Jan 27, 2022	311	@ Kennesaw St.	W	72-66	67%
Jan 29, 2022	110	@ Liberty	L	61-68	29%
Feb 03, 2022	280	North Florida	W	76-66	78%
Feb 05, 2022	302	Jacksonville	W	74-63	81%
Feb 09, 2022	251	@ Stetson	W	71-69	57%
Feb 12, 2022	334	Central Arkansas	W	81-66	88%
Feb 16, 2022	226	@ Lipscomb	W	69-68	53%
Feb 19, 2022	165	@ Bellarmine	L	66-69	41%
Feb 23, 2022	180	Eastern Kentucky	W	79-75	62%
Feb 26, 2022	318	North Alabama	W	77-65	83%
Projected Record						15 - 11	10 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.3	1.8	4.5	5.5	4.3	1.4		17.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.6	3.2	6.1	5.6	2.0	0.2			17.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.5	3.5	6.1	3.9	0.8	0.0				14.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	3.0	5.8	2.9	0.4	0.0					12.6	4th
5th								0.2	2.3	4.8	2.6	0.3	0.0						10.1	5th
6th							0.1	1.6	3.9	2.1	0.3	0.0							7.9	6th
7th						0.1	1.0	3.0	2.1	0.3									6.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.1	1.8	0.3	0.0									4.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.4	1.4	0.3	0.0										3.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.0											2.3	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0												1.4	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1		0.0												0.7	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	1.8	3.1	4.8	6.8	8.9	10.7	12.7	12.9	12.3	10.9	7.5	4.5	1.4			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	1.4		1.4
15-1	95.0%	4.3		3.7	0.6
14-2	73.5%	5.5		3.6	1.8	0.1
13-3	41.2%	4.5		1.8	2.0	0.6	0.0
12-4	14.7%	1.8		0.3	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0
11-5	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	17.9%	17.9		10.9	5.3	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.4%		67.4%	63.5%	3.8%	10.9		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.5		10.5%
15-1	4.5%		51.2%	49.7%	1.5%	12.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.0	2.2		3.1%
14-2	7.5%		40.3%	39.7%	0.5%	13.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.1	4.5		0.9%
13-3	10.9%		31.0%	31.0%	0.0%	14.1												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	1.1	0.2	7.6		0.0%
12-4	12.3%		22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	14.7											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.9	1.0	0.5	9.6		0.0%
11-5	12.9%		15.4%	15.4%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.7	10.9
10-6	12.7%		10.2%	10.2%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	11.4
9-7	10.7%		7.2%	7.2%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	9.9
8-8	8.9%		4.5%	4.5%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	8.5
7-9	6.8%		3.8%	3.8%		16.0																0.0	0.3	6.6
6-10	4.8%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																0.0	0.1	4.7
5-11	3.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
4-12	1.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
3-13	1.0%																							1.0
2-14	0.5%																							0.5
1-15	0.1%																							0.1
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		17.2%	17.1%	0.2%	14.1		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.3	3.0	4.2	4.3	3.6	82.8		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.9	10.5		16.9	28.2	5.6	16.9	5.6	5.6	4.8		5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	33.3%	7.0							33.3