IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.4	#110
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.3	#348
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#128

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.8	#97

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.4%	2.2%	0.1%
Top 6 Seed	1.1%	5.0%	0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	37.4%	52.8%	34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	4.0%	0.3%
Average Seed	13.4	11.9	13.9

.500 or above	93.3%	99.2%	92.0%
.500 or above in Conference	94.9%	98.9%	94.1%
Conference Champion	44.1%	61.5%	40.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%

First Four	2.0%	1.3%	2.2%
First Round	36.6%	52.2%	33.2%
Second Round	7.0%	14.7%	5.4%
Sweet Sixteen	2.2%	5.3%	1.6%
Elite Eight	0.6%	1.8%	0.4%
Final Four	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	4 - 3	5 - 5
Quad 4	15 - 2	21 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 15, 2021	36	@ LSU	L	66-76	18%
Nov 19, 2021	146	Iona	W	67-64	60%
Nov 20, 2021	278	Manhattan	W	68-57	82%
Nov 23, 2021	350	Bethune-Cookman	W	76-55	96%
Nov 27, 2021	356	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	77-48	99%
Dec 02, 2021	84	Missouri	W	67-66	53%
Dec 06, 2021	354	Delaware St.	W	87-60	99%
Dec 11, 2021	153	Stephen F. Austin	W	70-66	62%
Dec 17, 2021	183	East Carolina	W	68-63	67%
Dec 22, 2021	107	Northern Iowa	L	67-68	50%
Jan 04, 2022	251	@ Stetson	W	69-63	70%
Jan 08, 2022	311	Kennesaw St.	W	74-58	90%
Jan 11, 2022	280	North Florida	W	75-61	87%
Jan 15, 2022	222	@ Florida Gulf Coast	W	71-66	65%
Jan 18, 2022	302	Jacksonville	W	73-58	89%
Jan 22, 2022	334	@ Central Arkansas	W	77-64	84%
Jan 27, 2022	318	North Alabama	W	76-60	90%
Jan 29, 2022	164	Jacksonville St.	W	68-61	71%
Feb 03, 2022	165	@ Bellarmine	W	65-64	53%
Feb 05, 2022	180	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	74-72	57%
Feb 08, 2022	226	Lipscomb	W	71-60	81%
Feb 12, 2022	302	@ Jacksonville	W	70-61	76%
Feb 15, 2022	280	@ North Florida	W	72-64	73%
Feb 19, 2022	251	Stetson	W	72-60	84%
Feb 23, 2022	222	Florida Gulf Coast	W	74-63	80%
Feb 26, 2022	311	@ Kennesaw St.	W	71-61	78%
Projected Record						19 - 7	12 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.4	2.6	7.8	13.0	13.0	7.3		44.1	1st
2nd										0.0	0.5	3.1	7.1	7.1	3.1	0.4			21.4	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.3	2.6	4.8	3.5	0.8	0.0				12.0	3rd
4th									0.2	1.5	3.7	2.3	0.3	0.0					8.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.9	2.4	1.6	0.2	0.0						5.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	1.7	1.2	0.2	0.0							3.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.0								2.3	7th
8th						0.1	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.0									1.5	8th
9th				0.0	0.0	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0										1.0	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0											0.5	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0												0.3	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													0.1	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.8	1.4	2.3	3.9	5.6	8.5	10.8	13.6	15.7	16.1	13.5	7.3			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	7.3		7.3
15-1	96.9%	13.0		11.5	1.5
14-2	80.6%	13.0		8.9	3.8	0.3
13-3	49.7%	7.8		3.6	3.3	0.9	0.0
12-4	19.4%	2.6		0.6	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0
11-5	3.6%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	44.1%	44.1		31.9	9.9	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	7.3%		76.5%	72.3%	4.1%	10.3		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.6	1.2	1.2	0.5	0.1		1.7		15.0%
15-1	13.5%		62.6%	61.5%	1.2%	12.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.5	2.1	3.1	1.9	0.5	0.1	5.0		3.0%
14-2	16.1%		49.7%	49.6%	0.2%	13.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0	2.4	2.8	1.4	0.2	8.1		0.3%
13-3	15.7%		39.6%	39.6%	0.0%	14.2												0.0	0.3	1.2	2.2	2.0	0.5	9.5		0.0%
12-4	13.6%		29.8%	29.8%		14.7													0.0	0.4	1.1	1.7	0.8	9.5
11-5	10.8%		23.4%	23.4%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.0	8.3
10-6	8.5%		16.7%	16.7%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	7.1
9-7	5.6%		12.3%	12.3%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	4.9
8-8	3.9%		8.1%	8.1%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	3.6
7-9	2.3%		4.5%	4.5%		16.0																0.0	0.1	2.2
6-10	1.4%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																	0.0	1.4
5-11	0.8%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
4-12	0.3%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
3-13	0.2%																							0.2
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		37.4%	36.9%	0.5%	13.4		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	1.2	4.6	8.3	9.1	7.3	4.4	62.6		0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.8%	100.0%	5.3	2.6	2.8	12.5	23.1	19.7	18.2	8.0	4.5	2.7	2.7	1.1	1.6	0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	74.2%	8.7				3.9	5.3	7.8	11.4	1.7	6.1	16.1	13.1	8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	40.8%	9.4						4.1	3.6	7.7	3.6	8.3	4.1	9.5