Preseason Rankings
Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.9#289
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.0% 5.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.5% 10.6% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 22.8% 23.1% 2.2%
Top 6 Seed 35.2% 35.6% 5.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.1% 62.6% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.9% 58.5% 14.3%
Average Seed 6.0 6.0 8.0
.500 or above 81.5% 82.1% 33.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 73.7% 31.9%
Conference Champion 12.4% 12.5% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 9.8%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 1.8%
First Round60.3% 60.8% 15.5%
Second Round40.5% 40.9% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen20.9% 21.1% 3.4%
Elite Eight10.4% 10.5% 1.7%
Final Four4.8% 4.9% 0.6%
Championship Game2.2% 2.3% 0.0%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 10
Quad 36 - 115 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 317   Southern W 83-59 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 109   Furman W 75-64 84%    
  Nov 15, 2021 184   Navy W 75-59 92%    
  Nov 20, 2021 212   Detroit Mercy W 81-63 94%    
  Nov 25, 2021 56   Mississippi St. W 69-66 61%    
  Dec 01, 2021 24   @ Michigan St. L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 04, 2021 59   @ North Carolina St. W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 10, 2021 112   DePaul W 76-65 82%    
  Dec 14, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 83-58 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 100   @ Western Kentucky W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 22, 2021 14   @ Kentucky L 68-73 34%    
  Dec 29, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 74-63 80%    
  Jan 01, 2022 60   @ Georgia Tech W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 05, 2022 117   Pittsburgh W 75-63 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 18   @ Florida St. L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 12, 2022 59   North Carolina St. W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 117   @ Pittsburgh W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 19, 2022 144   Boston College W 80-66 86%    
  Jan 22, 2022 45   Notre Dame W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 24, 2022 29   @ Virginia L 57-60 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 10   Duke L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 31, 2022 22   North Carolina W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 44   @ Syracuse L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 09, 2022 45   @ Notre Dame L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 16, 2022 85   Miami (FL) W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 55   Clemson W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 21, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 103   @ Wake Forest W 71-66 64%    
  Mar 01, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 29   Virginia W 60-57 60%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 3.4 2.8 1.7 0.5 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.9 0.6 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.8 6.0 7.6 8.5 9.4 10.1 10.0 9.7 8.5 6.7 5.1 3.1 1.7 0.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 99.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
18-2 89.4% 2.8    2.2 0.6 0.0
17-3 66.4% 3.4    2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
16-4 39.1% 2.6    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 13.8% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 7.7 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 57.7% 42.3% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.7% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.1% 100.0% 29.5% 70.4% 2.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 6.7% 99.9% 23.9% 76.0% 3.5 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 8.5% 99.5% 17.3% 82.2% 4.7 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 9.7% 97.9% 13.3% 84.7% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.6%
13-7 10.0% 92.2% 7.8% 84.4% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 91.5%
12-8 10.1% 79.8% 4.4% 75.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 78.9%
11-9 9.4% 58.0% 2.1% 55.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 57.1%
10-10 8.5% 34.8% 1.7% 33.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 33.6%
9-11 7.6% 14.6% 1.1% 13.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 13.7%
8-12 6.0% 3.4% 0.7% 2.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 2.8%
7-13 4.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.5%
6-14 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-15 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 62.1% 9.9% 52.2% 6.0 5.0 5.6 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.0 4.1 3.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.9 57.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.0 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5