Preseason Rankings
Marshall
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.9#19
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 19.5% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.9% 7.5% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.4 12.1
.500 or above 68.0% 80.3% 49.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.4% 81.5% 61.1%
Conference Champion 13.2% 17.4% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.2% 4.2%
First Four1.9% 2.6% 0.8%
First Round13.4% 18.2% 6.2%
Second Round4.5% 6.5% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 37 - 59 - 11
Quad 49 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 115   Wright St. W 83-80 60%    
  Nov 18, 2021 200   Campbell W 77-69 77%    
  Nov 21, 2021 262   Jackson St. W 80-68 85%    
  Nov 23, 2021 171   Louisiana W 86-79 71%    
  Nov 27, 2021 30   @ Indiana L 69-81 16%    
  Dec 01, 2021 128   @ Akron L 77-79 43%    
  Dec 04, 2021 162   Duquesne W 80-74 70%    
  Dec 11, 2021 180   @ Eastern Kentucky W 87-86 54%    
  Dec 15, 2021 91   @ Ohio L 78-83 33%    
  Dec 18, 2021 107   Northern Iowa W 81-79 57%    
  Dec 21, 2021 114   @ Toledo L 80-83 39%    
  Dec 30, 2021 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 76-81 34%    
  Jan 01, 2022 195   @ Southern Miss W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 159   Florida Atlantic W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 13, 2022 123   North Texas W 72-68 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 173   Rice W 86-79 70%    
  Jan 20, 2022 273   @ Florida International W 84-77 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 159   @ Florida Atlantic W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 27, 2022 267   Middle Tennessee W 85-73 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 74   UAB L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 03, 2022 131   @ Old Dominion L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 178   @ Charlotte W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 10, 2022 273   Florida International W 87-74 83%    
  Feb 13, 2022 163   @ UTEP W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 17, 2022 131   Old Dominion W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 19, 2022 178   Charlotte W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 24, 2022 267   @ Middle Tennessee W 82-76 69%    
  Mar 02, 2022 100   Western Kentucky W 78-77 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 100   @ Western Kentucky L 75-80 35%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.8 3.5 2.2 0.7 13.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.0 1.4 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.4 8.0 9.4 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.0 8.4 6.4 4.2 2.2 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.3% 2.2    2.0 0.2 0.0
16-2 84.5% 3.5    2.6 0.8 0.0
15-3 58.6% 3.8    1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 27.0% 2.3    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 8.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 93.3% 55.2% 38.2% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1%
17-1 2.2% 80.5% 43.1% 37.4% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 65.7%
16-2 4.2% 63.6% 35.3% 28.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 43.7%
15-3 6.4% 43.4% 25.9% 17.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 23.6%
14-4 8.4% 27.3% 20.5% 6.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.1 8.6%
13-5 10.0% 18.7% 15.6% 3.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.1 3.8%
12-6 10.7% 10.2% 9.2% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 1.1%
11-7 10.8% 5.7% 5.5% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.2 0.2%
10-8 10.6% 2.3% 2.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.4
9-9 9.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2
8-10 8.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
7-11 6.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.3
6-12 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 4.8
5-13 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 9.9% 4.4% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.3 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 85.7 4.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 13.4 42.8 23.9 13.4 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 97.5% 2.0 32.5 32.5 32.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 15.4 33.3 17.9 33.3
Lose Out 0.0%