Preseason Rankings
Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#119
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.3#43
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#108
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 11.5% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.9% 6.9% 1.0%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 11.4
.500 or above 66.1% 72.1% 36.4%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 67.2% 40.6%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.2% 6.6%
First Four2.1% 2.4% 0.5%
First Round9.0% 10.3% 2.2%
Second Round3.6% 4.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 36 - 59 - 12
Quad 410 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 229   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 80-70 83%    
  Nov 12, 2021 126   @ Yale L 76-78 41%    
  Nov 15, 2021 53   Penn St. L 76-79 40%    
  Nov 18, 2021 129   Weber St. W 83-82 53%    
  Nov 19, 2021 149   UNC Greensboro W 76-74 57%    
  Nov 21, 2021 199   Ball St. W 81-76 67%    
  Nov 24, 2021 258   Umass Lowell W 84-72 83%    
  Nov 27, 2021 50   Rutgers L 72-76 38%    
  Dec 04, 2021 160   Harvard W 79-73 69%    
  Dec 07, 2021 134   @ Northeastern L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 11, 2021 123   North Texas W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 19, 2021 260   Fairfield W 75-63 83%    
  Dec 22, 2021 293   NJIT W 82-68 86%    
  Dec 30, 2021 79   Saint Louis L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 02, 2022 275   @ Fordham W 69-62 70%    
  Jan 05, 2022 57   @ Richmond L 72-81 25%    
  Jan 08, 2022 162   Duquesne W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 11, 2022 98   @ Davidson L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 15, 2022 101   Rhode Island W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 23, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis L 73-79 31%    
  Jan 26, 2022 210   @ La Salle W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 30, 2022 169   George Mason W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 05, 2022 101   @ Rhode Island L 74-79 35%    
  Feb 09, 2022 238   George Washington W 82-71 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 193   Saint Joseph's W 86-78 74%    
  Feb 16, 2022 28   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-77 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 210   La Salle W 81-72 75%    
  Feb 23, 2022 87   @ Dayton L 69-75 33%    
  Feb 26, 2022 77   Virginia Commonwealth L 75-76 48%    
  Mar 02, 2022 275   Fordham W 72-59 84%    
  Mar 05, 2022 169   @ George Mason W 75-74 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.5 1.6 0.2 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.8 10.1 11.4 11.6 10.6 9.5 7.9 5.5 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 96.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 78.9% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 46.2% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 19.3% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 96.1% 47.2% 48.9% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.7%
17-1 0.7% 92.9% 33.7% 59.2% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 89.3%
16-2 1.9% 81.7% 27.8% 53.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 74.6%
15-3 3.4% 60.5% 19.2% 41.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 51.1%
14-4 5.5% 37.3% 13.7% 23.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 27.4%
13-5 7.9% 19.8% 9.8% 9.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.3 11.0%
12-6 9.5% 9.9% 5.9% 4.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5 4.3%
11-7 10.6% 4.2% 2.9% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 1.3%
10-8 11.6% 2.2% 1.9% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.3%
9-9 11.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.1%
8-10 10.1% 0.4% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
7-11 8.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8
6-12 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
4-14 3.4% 3.4
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.0% 4.3% 5.6% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 90.0 5.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 55.6 39.5 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.6 5.0 30.0 65.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 50.0 50.0
Lose Out 0.0%