Preseason Rankings
Mercer
Southern
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#155
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#207
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#147
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#180
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 2.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 27.1% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 5.1% 0.6%
Average Seed 13.0 11.4 13.3
.500 or above 59.1% 89.8% 57.0%
.500 or above in Conference 65.9% 87.8% 64.4%
Conference Champion 13.0% 29.4% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 0.7% 5.1%
First Four0.8% 1.7% 0.8%
First Round11.0% 26.3% 9.9%
Second Round1.9% 7.5% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 2.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 6.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 17   @ Arkansas L 69-85 6%    
  Nov 13, 2021 143   @ Winthrop L 76-80 35%    
  Nov 20, 2021 79   @ Saint Louis L 67-76 21%    
  Nov 23, 2021 294   Bucknell W 80-72 75%    
  Dec 01, 2021 311   @ Kennesaw St. W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 04, 2021 121   Georgia St. W 76-75 52%    
  Dec 06, 2021 190   @ Coastal Carolina L 75-76 46%    
  Dec 11, 2021 245   Georgia Southern W 73-65 75%    
  Dec 19, 2021 222   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 22, 2021 243   Troy W 75-67 75%    
  Dec 29, 2021 272   @ The Citadel W 82-78 62%    
  Jan 01, 2022 135   Chattanooga W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 05, 2022 255   Samford W 83-74 76%    
  Jan 08, 2022 109   @ Furman L 69-76 29%    
  Jan 13, 2022 218   VMI W 80-73 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 149   UNC Greensboro W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 19, 2022 141   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 22, 2022 309   Western Carolina W 81-69 83%    
  Jan 26, 2022 255   @ Samford W 80-77 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 109   Furman L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 31, 2022 139   Wofford W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 135   @ Chattanooga L 68-73 36%    
  Feb 10, 2022 218   @ VMI W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 13, 2022 149   @ UNC Greensboro L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 16, 2022 141   East Tennessee St. W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 309   @ Western Carolina W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 23, 2022 272   The Citadel W 85-75 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 139   @ Wofford L 68-72 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 3.6 2.9 1.4 0.5 13.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.0 4.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.5 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 4.0 1.1 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.4 3.2 0.8 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.3 7.7 9.3 10.3 10.7 10.5 9.8 8.3 6.4 4.9 3.1 1.4 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 93.8% 2.9    2.4 0.4
15-3 73.6% 3.6    2.5 1.1 0.1
14-4 43.6% 2.8    1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.9% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 8.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 81.6% 60.2% 21.4% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 53.7%
17-1 1.4% 66.4% 52.1% 14.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 29.8%
16-2 3.1% 49.2% 41.8% 7.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 12.7%
15-3 4.9% 35.4% 32.8% 2.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.2 3.9%
14-4 6.4% 25.8% 25.3% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.8 0.7%
13-5 8.3% 18.9% 18.7% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.7 0.2%
12-6 9.8% 12.4% 12.3% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.6 0.1%
11-7 10.5% 8.4% 8.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.6
10-8 10.7% 6.1% 6.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.0
9-9 10.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.9
8-10 9.3% 2.6% 2.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.0
7-11 7.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.6
6-12 6.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.4% 10.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.9 2.8 2.4 1.8 0.9 88.6 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.2 9.9 23.9 30.3 18.3 13.4 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.1 30.0 70.0
Lose Out 0.0%