IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.9	#152
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.9	#304
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.9	#121

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.0	#203

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	1.1%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.8%	17.5%	6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.0%	4.2%	0.4%
Average Seed	12.7	11.6	13.2

.500 or above	57.5%	85.0%	52.7%
.500 or above in Conference	64.9%	84.2%	61.5%
Conference Champion	7.8%	16.6%	6.3%
Last Place in Conference	2.8%	0.6%	3.2%

First Four	0.7%	1.8%	0.5%
First Round	7.5%	16.5%	5.9%
Second Round	1.6%	4.9%	1.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.5%	1.5%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Final Four	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 3	16 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	60	@ Georgia Tech	L	63-74	15%
Nov 13, 2021	308	Lamar	W	76-64	87%
Nov 17, 2021	251	Stetson	W	75-66	78%
Nov 27, 2021	274	@ Western Illinois	W	78-74	63%
Dec 01, 2021	90	Cincinnati	L	71-73	43%
Dec 04, 2021	176	@ Indiana St.	L	67-69	44%
Dec 14, 2021	55	@ Clemson	L	59-70	17%
Dec 18, 2021	165	Bellarmine	W	71-67	62%
Dec 29, 2021	83	@ Buffalo	L	72-81	24%
Jan 01, 2022	279	Central Michigan	W	81-71	80%
Jan 04, 2022	150	@ Bowling Green	L	73-76	39%
Jan 08, 2022	128	Akron	W	71-70	53%
Jan 11, 2022	114	Toledo	L	73-74	50%
Jan 15, 2022	284	@ Western Michigan	W	71-66	64%
Jan 18, 2022	91	Ohio	L	72-74	43%
Jan 22, 2022	314	Northern Illinois	W	73-61	84%
Jan 25, 2022	199	@ Ball St.	L	72-73	49%
Jan 29, 2022	300	@ Eastern Michigan	W	72-66	67%
Feb 01, 2022	132	Kent St.	W	73-72	54%
Feb 05, 2022	128	@ Akron	L	68-73	35%
Feb 08, 2022	284	Western Michigan	W	74-63	80%
Feb 12, 2022	150	Bowling Green	W	76-73	58%
Feb 15, 2022	91	@ Ohio	L	69-77	26%
Feb 19, 2022	314	@ Northern Illinois	W	70-64	69%
Feb 22, 2022	83	Buffalo	L	75-78	41%
Feb 26, 2022	114	@ Toledo	L	70-76	32%
Mar 01, 2022	279	@ Central Michigan	W	78-74	63%
Mar 04, 2022	300	Eastern Michigan	W	75-63	81%
Projected Record						15 - 13	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.9	1.7	2.2	1.7	0.8	0.2		7.8	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.5	2.0	3.0	2.5	1.0	0.2				9.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.8	2.8	3.8	2.4	0.5	0.0					10.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.3	3.5	4.1	2.1	0.3	0.0						11.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.7	4.0	4.2	1.7	0.2	0.0							12.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.1	4.3	3.6	1.3	0.1									12.0	6th
7th							0.1	0.6	2.4	4.0	3.0	0.9	0.1										11.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	2.4	3.3	2.2	0.6	0.1											9.3	8th
9th					0.1	0.7	2.2	2.6	1.3	0.3	0.0												7.2	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.7	1.6	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0													4.8	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0															3.1	11th
12th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0															1.6	12th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.1	3.3	4.8	6.4	7.6	8.8	9.9	10.0	10.1	9.2	8.2	6.6	4.7	3.3	1.9	0.8	0.2			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
19-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
18-2	91.4%	1.7		1.4	0.3	0.0
17-3	67.7%	2.2		1.4	0.8	0.1	0.0
16-4	37.3%	1.7		0.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
15-5	12.9%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1
14-6	2.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	7.8%	7.8		4.8	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.2%		84.2%	51.1%	33.1%	7.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		67.6%
19-1	0.8%		72.5%	47.4%	25.1%	9.6			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2		47.7%
18-2	1.9%		52.1%	37.4%	14.6%	11.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0			0.9		23.4%
17-3	3.3%		36.5%	30.6%	5.9%	12.1							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	2.1		8.5%
16-4	4.7%		23.9%	21.7%	2.2%	12.7									0.0		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1		3.6		2.8%
15-5	6.6%		14.9%	14.4%	0.5%	13.2									0.0			0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	5.6		0.6%
14-6	8.2%		11.7%	11.6%	0.1%	13.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	7.3		0.1%
13-7	9.2%		7.3%	7.3%		14.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	8.5
12-8	10.1%		4.3%	4.3%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.7
11-9	10.0%		3.6%	3.6%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	9.6
10-10	9.9%		2.1%	2.1%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	9.7
9-11	8.8%		1.2%	1.2%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	8.7
8-12	7.6%		0.3%	0.3%		15.9																0.0	0.0	7.5
7-13	6.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
6-14	4.8%																							4.8
5-15	3.3%																							3.3
4-16	2.1%																							2.1
3-17	1.3%																							1.3
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		7.8%	6.9%	0.9%	12.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6	1.6	1.9	1.4	0.9	0.5	92.2		1.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	2.9	37.5		18.8	21.9	21.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	4.5			15.0	52.5	17.5		15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	5.3				17.1	34.1	48.8