Preseason Rankings
Monmouth
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#216
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace82.4#5
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#234
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#214
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 17.6% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 46.9% 70.2% 36.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 78.4% 55.8%
Conference Champion 12.7% 21.5% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 2.7% 9.2%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 1.7%
First Round10.1% 17.0% 7.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 412 - 616 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 178   @ Charlotte L 67-72 31%    
  Nov 13, 2021 239   @ Towson L 75-77 45%    
  Nov 16, 2021 297   Lehigh W 84-76 74%    
  Nov 20, 2021 193   @ Saint Joseph's L 82-86 36%    
  Nov 24, 2021 168   Princeton W 79-78 51%    
  Nov 27, 2021 90   @ Cincinnati L 74-86 16%    
  Dec 03, 2021 250   @ Niagara L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 05, 2021 265   @ Canisius L 81-82 50%    
  Dec 09, 2021 52   @ St. John's L 78-93 11%    
  Dec 12, 2021 117   @ Pittsburgh L 73-83 22%    
  Dec 14, 2021 126   @ Yale L 74-83 24%    
  Dec 19, 2021 105   Colgate L 82-87 36%    
  Dec 22, 2021 192   Hofstra W 80-79 55%    
  Dec 31, 2021 246   Marist W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 07, 2022 227   Siena W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 09, 2022 146   Iona L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 14, 2022 191   @ St. Peter's L 70-75 36%    
  Jan 16, 2022 246   @ Marist L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 20, 2022 260   @ Fairfield L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 23, 2022 278   Manhattan W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 28, 2022 265   Canisius W 84-78 67%    
  Jan 30, 2022 250   Niagara W 77-72 66%    
  Feb 04, 2022 260   Fairfield W 74-68 67%    
  Feb 06, 2022 261   @ Quinnipiac L 81-82 49%    
  Feb 11, 2022 278   @ Manhattan W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 13, 2022 146   @ Iona L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 18, 2022 248   Rider W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 25, 2022 191   St. Peter's W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 27, 2022 227   @ Siena L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 03, 2022 261   Quinnipiac W 84-78 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 248   @ Rider L 78-79 47%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.0 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.3 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.7 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.6 1.3 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.2 6.4 7.4 8.3 9.1 9.3 9.2 8.6 7.9 6.4 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 95.9% 2.1    1.9 0.2
17-3 83.1% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
16-4 59.3% 3.0    1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 32.2% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 12.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 8.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 70.7% 61.6% 9.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.8%
19-1 1.1% 56.4% 50.9% 5.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11.1%
18-2 2.2% 47.6% 46.1% 1.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 2.8%
17-3 3.5% 39.8% 39.6% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.1 0.3%
16-4 5.1% 29.8% 29.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.6
15-5 6.4% 23.8% 23.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 4.9 0.0%
14-6 7.9% 17.5% 17.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 6.5
13-7 8.6% 12.8% 12.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 7.5
12-8 9.2% 8.7% 8.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 8.4
11-9 9.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.8
10-10 9.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.8
9-11 8.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.2
8-12 7.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.2
7-13 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-14 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.2
5-15 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-16 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.8% 10.6% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.9 89.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%