Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.0#288
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#131
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#132
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.0% 30.1% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 14.4
.500 or above 88.8% 94.5% 75.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 96.7% 89.4%
Conference Champion 30.5% 35.4% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round25.6% 29.7% 16.0%
Second Round4.5% 5.8% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 6
Quad 414 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 165   Bellarmine W 71-65 70%    
  Nov 16, 2021 223   @ Illinois St. W 71-68 61%    
  Nov 22, 2021 141   East Tennessee St. W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 04, 2021 267   Middle Tennessee W 76-64 84%    
  Dec 10, 2021 11   @ Memphis L 64-79 10%    
  Dec 18, 2021 135   Chattanooga W 71-67 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 26   @ Auburn L 67-80 15%    
  Dec 30, 2021 268   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-64 83%    
  Jan 01, 2022 301   Tennessee Tech W 78-64 86%    
  Jan 06, 2022 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 76-65 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 328   @ SIU Edwardsville W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 13, 2022 289   Tennessee St. W 79-66 85%    
  Jan 15, 2022 81   @ Belmont L 70-77 29%    
  Jan 20, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois W 79-62 91%    
  Jan 22, 2022 349   Tennessee Martin W 81-59 96%    
  Jan 27, 2022 301   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 158   Morehead St. W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 03, 2022 285   @ Austin Peay W 73-66 70%    
  Feb 05, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 77-61 90%    
  Feb 10, 2022 289   @ Tennessee St. W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 158   @ Morehead St. L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 17, 2022 285   Austin Peay W 76-63 84%    
  Feb 19, 2022 349   @ Tennessee Martin W 78-62 89%    
  Feb 24, 2022 81   Belmont L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 26, 2022 268   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 73-67 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.1 9.4 8.6 3.4 30.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.2 9.2 8.3 3.1 29.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.8 5.8 2.6 0.4 18.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.8 8.0 10.3 13.1 14.2 14.7 12.6 8.6 3.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.4    3.4
17-1 100.0% 8.6    7.5 1.1
16-2 75.2% 9.4    6.3 3.0 0.1
15-3 41.4% 6.1    3.0 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 16.6% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
13-5 4.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 21.1 8.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.4% 74.8% 68.2% 6.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 20.6%
17-1 8.6% 59.3% 56.5% 2.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 3.5 6.4%
16-2 12.6% 46.2% 45.7% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 6.8 1.0%
15-3 14.7% 33.3% 33.2% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.2 9.8 0.1%
14-4 14.2% 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.4 10.7 0.0%
13-5 13.1% 16.3% 16.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 11.0
12-6 10.3% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 9.2
11-7 8.0% 6.9% 6.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.5
10-8 5.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.5
9-9 3.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8
8-10 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-11 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.0% 25.5% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 3.6 6.3 6.7 4.8 2.2 74.0 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.2 2.6 10.1 20.7 24.5 24.3 13.2 1.6 1.4 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 93.8% 5.3 7.3 8.3 14.6 21.9 29.2 6.3 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 6.2 21.9 21.9 18.8 18.8 18.8