IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.4	#280
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.2	#233
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#202

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#325

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.8%	12.9%	3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	13.9	15.2

.500 or above	12.4%	51.0%	11.8%
.500 or above in Conference	41.7%	76.4%	41.2%
Conference Champion	2.9%	12.1%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	11.1%	1.6%	11.2%

First Four	1.4%	1.7%	1.4%
First Round	3.2%	12.5%	3.0%
Second Round	0.2%	1.0%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 4	0 - 4
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 9
Quad 3	2 - 5	2 - 14
Quad 4	7 - 5	9 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	21	@ Texas Tech	L	58-81	1%
Nov 10, 2021	94	@ Texas A&M	L	62-77	8%
Nov 12, 2021	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	65-76	16%
Nov 15, 2021	61	@ Arizona St.	L	70-88	6%
Nov 17, 2021	3	@ UCLA	L	56-83	1%
Nov 26, 2021	14	@ Kentucky	L	62-86	2%
Nov 28, 2021	273	@ Florida International	L	74-77	39%
Dec 05, 2021	159	@ Florida Atlantic	L	67-77	21%
Dec 08, 2021	33	@ Florida	L	63-84	4%
Dec 11, 2021	285	Austin Peay	W	74-71	60%
Dec 21, 2021	18	@ Florida St.	L	63-86	3%
Jan 04, 2022	222	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	73-79	31%
Jan 08, 2022	251	Stetson	W	74-72	55%
Jan 11, 2022	110	@ Liberty	L	61-75	13%
Jan 15, 2022	302	Jacksonville	W	74-70	64%
Jan 18, 2022	311	Kennesaw St.	W	75-70	65%
Jan 22, 2022	180	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	77-86	24%
Jan 27, 2022	334	Central Arkansas	W	82-74	74%
Jan 29, 2022	226	Lipscomb	W	72-71	51%
Feb 03, 2022	164	@ Jacksonville St.	L	66-76	22%
Feb 05, 2022	318	@ North Alabama	L	74-75	49%
Feb 09, 2022	165	Bellarmine	L	69-73	39%
Feb 12, 2022	311	@ Kennesaw St.	L	72-73	47%
Feb 15, 2022	110	Liberty	L	64-72	27%
Feb 19, 2022	222	Florida Gulf Coast	L	76-77	49%
Feb 23, 2022	302	@ Jacksonville	L	71-73	45%
Feb 26, 2022	251	@ Stetson	L	71-75	37%
Projected Record						9 - 18	7 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.6	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.1		2.9	1st
2nd										0.0	0.3	1.3	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0			4.7	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.4	2.0	2.6	1.2	0.2	0.0				6.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.6	3.6	1.4	0.1						8.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.7	4.3	1.7	0.1	0.0						9.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	2.6	5.0	2.1	0.2								10.1	6th
7th						0.2	2.3	5.3	2.7	0.3	0.0								10.8	7th
8th					0.2	1.9	5.3	3.3	0.4	0.0									11.1	8th
9th				0.2	1.8	5.0	3.5	0.5	0.0										11.0	9th
10th			0.2	1.7	4.4	3.2	0.7	0.0											10.3	10th
11th		0.4	1.9	3.6	2.6	0.6	0.0												9.1	11th
12th	0.7	1.8	2.2	1.4	0.3	0.0													6.4	12th

Total	0.7	2.2	4.3	6.9	9.2	11.0	12.1	12.0	11.3	9.8	7.8	5.5	3.7	2.2	1.0	0.4	0.1			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	98.8%	0.4		0.3	0.1
14-2	77.6%	0.8		0.6	0.2	0.0
13-3	44.6%	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-4	16.3%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0
11-5	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	2.9%	2.9		1.5	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		59.0%	55.7%	3.3%	12.6								0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		7.4%
15-1	0.4%		38.0%	35.7%	2.3%	13.0						0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2		3.6%
14-2	1.0%		26.6%	26.6%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.8
13-3	2.2%		24.3%	24.3%	0.0%	14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	1.6		0.0%
12-4	3.7%		17.7%	17.7%		14.9												0.0		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	3.1
11-5	5.5%		10.3%	10.3%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	4.9
10-6	7.8%		7.0%	7.0%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	7.3
9-7	9.8%		4.2%	4.2%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.4	9.3
8-8	11.3%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																0.0	0.3	11.0
7-9	12.0%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.2	11.8
6-10	12.1%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	12.0
5-11	11.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
4-12	9.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.2
3-13	6.9%																							6.9
2-14	4.3%																							4.3
1-15	2.2%																							2.2
0-16	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		3.8%	3.7%	0.0%	15.2						0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.9	96.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%