Preseason Rankings
Northwestern
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#58
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#158
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 7.0% 7.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 13.5% 13.7% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 32.8% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.8% 31.2% 4.3%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 61.5% 62.1% 17.7%
.500 or above in Conference 36.1% 36.6% 9.1%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 12.4% 34.0%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 0.6%
First Round30.7% 31.1% 4.3%
Second Round18.4% 18.7% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 8.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.5% 0.1%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 24 - 37 - 13
Quad 33 - 110 - 14
Quad 46 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 330   Eastern Illinois W 84-61 98%    
  Nov 12, 2021 299   High Point W 79-59 96%    
  Nov 16, 2021 298   New Orleans W 88-69 96%    
  Nov 18, 2021 323   Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-66 97%    
  Nov 22, 2021 65   Providence W 70-69 52%    
  Nov 30, 2021 103   @ Wake Forest W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 05, 2021 16   @ Maryland L 63-71 26%    
  Dec 12, 2021 293   NJIT W 80-61 94%    
  Dec 18, 2021 112   DePaul W 76-68 74%    
  Dec 30, 2021 232   Prairie View W 78-62 90%    
  Jan 02, 2022 24   Michigan St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 05, 2022 53   Penn St. W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 09, 2022 12   @ Ohio St. L 67-76 23%    
  Jan 12, 2022 16   Maryland L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 24   @ Michigan St. L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 18, 2022 43   Wisconsin W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 23, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 64-75 20%    
  Jan 26, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 64-76 17%    
  Jan 29, 2022 8   Illinois L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 01, 2022 50   Rutgers W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 75   @ Nebraska L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 08, 2022 30   Indiana L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 13, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 70-80 21%    
  Feb 16, 2022 5   Purdue L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 22, 2022 75   Nebraska W 78-73 64%    
  Feb 25, 2022 53   @ Penn St. L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 28, 2022 39   @ Iowa L 73-78 35%    
  Mar 06, 2022 106   Minnesota W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 3.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 9.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 2.9 1.0 0.1 9.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.7 13th
14th 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 14th
Total 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.0 6.5 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.2 9.9 8.6 7.6 6.1 4.8 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 98.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 88.6% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
17-3 69.9% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 40.4% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 74.1% 25.9% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.9% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 2.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.5% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.4% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.6% 99.6% 8.1% 91.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 4.8% 97.0% 7.2% 89.7% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.7%
12-8 6.1% 90.8% 3.7% 87.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 90.5%
11-9 7.6% 75.4% 2.1% 73.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 74.9%
10-10 8.6% 53.0% 1.0% 52.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.1 52.6%
9-11 9.9% 21.9% 0.6% 21.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.8 21.4%
8-12 10.2% 5.8% 0.3% 5.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.6 5.5%
7-13 9.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.6%
6-14 9.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.1%
5-15 8.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0%
4-16 6.5% 6.5
3-17 5.0% 5.0
2-18 3.2% 3.2
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 32.4% 2.2% 30.1% 7.2 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 67.6 30.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 15.2