Preseason Rankings
Ohio St.
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#259
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.1% 3.4% 0.2%
#1 Seed 11.1% 11.9% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 21.6% 23.0% 3.7%
Top 4 Seed 39.4% 41.7% 11.0%
Top 6 Seed 53.8% 56.5% 19.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.7% 77.4% 42.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.6% 74.4% 40.2%
Average Seed 4.8 4.7 6.8
.500 or above 86.2% 88.6% 56.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 77.8% 48.7%
Conference Champion 14.4% 15.3% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.4% 6.7%
First Four2.9% 2.8% 3.7%
First Round73.4% 76.1% 40.3%
Second Round55.9% 58.4% 25.1%
Sweet Sixteen33.5% 35.3% 10.8%
Elite Eight18.5% 19.6% 4.9%
Final Four9.7% 10.3% 2.3%
Championship Game5.1% 5.4% 0.9%
National Champion2.5% 2.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 116 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 128   Akron W 80-65 93%    
  Nov 12, 2021 250   Niagara W 80-57 98%    
  Nov 15, 2021 150   Bowling Green W 84-67 93%    
  Nov 18, 2021 37   @ Xavier W 73-72 52%    
  Nov 22, 2021 41   Seton Hall W 72-68 63%    
  Nov 30, 2021 10   Duke W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 05, 2021 53   @ Penn St. W 74-71 59%    
  Dec 08, 2021 239   Towson W 82-60 97%    
  Dec 11, 2021 43   Wisconsin W 70-63 73%    
  Dec 18, 2021 14   Kentucky W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 21, 2021 349   Tennessee Martin W 89-55 99.7%   
  Dec 28, 2021 298   New Orleans W 91-65 98%    
  Jan 02, 2022 75   @ Nebraska W 78-73 65%    
  Jan 06, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 09, 2022 58   Northwestern W 76-67 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 43   @ Wisconsin W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 16, 2022 53   Penn St. W 77-68 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 75   Nebraska W 81-70 80%    
  Jan 27, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 30, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 68-73 36%    
  Feb 03, 2022 39   Iowa W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 06, 2022 16   Maryland W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 09, 2022 50   @ Rutgers W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 12, 2022 2   @ Michigan L 67-73 32%    
  Feb 15, 2022 106   Minnesota W 80-67 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 30   Indiana W 72-66 67%    
  Feb 24, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 27, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 67-69 45%    
  Mar 03, 2022 24   Michigan St. W 74-69 65%    
  Mar 06, 2022 2   Michigan L 70-71 49%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 3.8 3.3 1.9 0.5 14.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.3 3.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.2 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.0 4.4 5.8 6.9 8.2 9.2 10.2 10.2 9.6 9.0 7.6 5.5 3.7 1.9 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 98.7% 1.9    1.8 0.1
18-2 90.2% 3.3    2.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 68.6% 3.8    2.5 1.2 0.1
16-4 39.6% 3.0    1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.1% 1.4    0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 9.4 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 63.0% 37.0% 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.9% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.7% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.3 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.5% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.7 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.6% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 2.2 2.2 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.0% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 3.0 1.1 2.4 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.6% 99.8% 12.6% 87.3% 4.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.2% 98.8% 8.1% 90.7% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
12-8 10.2% 96.1% 5.2% 90.9% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.9%
11-9 9.2% 86.0% 3.1% 82.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 85.6%
10-10 8.2% 67.8% 1.6% 66.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 67.3%
9-11 6.9% 37.1% 1.3% 35.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 36.2%
8-12 5.8% 13.9% 0.8% 13.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 13.2%
7-13 4.4% 3.5% 0.3% 3.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 3.2%
6-14 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.5%
5-15 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.7% 11.1% 63.6% 4.8 11.1 10.5 9.7 8.1 7.7 6.7 5.7 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 25.3 71.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 95.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.1 10.9