Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#53
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#133
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 3.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.4% 8.7% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 15.4% 16.0% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.7% 36.8% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.1% 35.1% 7.3%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.3
.500 or above 60.8% 62.4% 19.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.2% 40.2% 12.4%
Conference Champion 2.8% 2.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 11.0% 31.0%
First Four3.2% 3.3% 0.8%
First Round34.1% 35.1% 7.1%
Second Round20.8% 21.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen9.3% 9.6% 1.6%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.2% 0.5%
Final Four1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 13
Quad 34 - 111 - 14
Quad 46 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 281   Youngstown St. W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 15, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts W 79-76 60%    
  Nov 18, 2021 320   St. Francis Brooklyn W 90-68 97%    
  Nov 22, 2021 290   Cornell W 83-64 95%    
  Nov 26, 2021 36   LSU L 78-80 42%    
  Dec 01, 2021 85   Miami (FL) W 76-70 68%    
  Dec 05, 2021 12   Ohio St. L 71-74 41%    
  Dec 08, 2021 228   Wagner W 79-63 91%    
  Dec 11, 2021 24   @ Michigan St. L 69-76 29%    
  Dec 18, 2021 77   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 22, 2021 261   Quinnipiac W 85-67 93%    
  Dec 29, 2021 354   Delaware St. W 97-65 99%    
  Jan 02, 2022 30   Indiana L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 05, 2022 58   @ Northwestern L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 08, 2022 5   Purdue L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 11, 2022 50   Rutgers W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 16, 2022 12   @ Ohio St. L 68-77 24%    
  Jan 19, 2022 106   Minnesota W 79-71 72%    
  Jan 22, 2022 39   @ Iowa L 75-80 35%    
  Jan 26, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 31, 2022 39   Iowa W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 43   @ Wisconsin L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 08, 2022 2   Michigan L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 15, 2022 24   Michigan St. L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 21, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 65-73 28%    
  Feb 25, 2022 58   Northwestern W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 28, 2022 75   Nebraska W 79-74 65%    
  Mar 03, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 71-81 22%    
  Mar 06, 2022 50   @ Rutgers L 69-73 38%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.0 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 13th
14th 0.4 1.3 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.4 14th
Total 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.5 6.1 7.9 8.8 9.4 9.9 9.6 9.0 7.8 6.6 5.2 4.0 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 88.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 68.3% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
16-4 39.4% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 14.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 64.2% 35.8% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 2.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.8% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.9% 99.8% 13.1% 86.7% 3.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 4.0% 99.5% 9.4% 90.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 5.2% 96.7% 5.4% 91.3% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 96.5%
12-8 6.6% 91.0% 3.7% 87.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 90.7%
11-9 7.8% 77.5% 2.1% 75.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 77.0%
10-10 9.0% 53.3% 1.5% 51.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 4.2 52.6%
9-11 9.6% 25.5% 0.4% 25.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 7.2 25.2%
8-12 9.9% 6.8% 0.1% 6.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.2 6.7%
7-13 9.4% 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.3 1.2%
6-14 8.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.1%
5-15 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 7.9
4-16 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 6.1
3-17 4.5% 4.5
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 35.7% 2.5% 33.2% 7.0 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 64.3 34.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 89.6 10.4