Preseason Rankings
Santa Clara
West Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#124
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.4#69
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#134
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.4% 7.5% 1.1%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 10.9
.500 or above 54.1% 60.3% 25.6%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 44.7% 22.3%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 6.8% 16.7%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 0.6%
First Round6.9% 8.2% 1.3%
Second Round3.0% 3.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 82.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 22 - 53 - 10
Quad 35 - 48 - 14
Quad 48 - 217 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 85-75 82%    
  Nov 12, 2021 71   Stanford L 73-75 44%    
  Nov 16, 2021 63   Nevada L 76-79 41%    
  Nov 19, 2021 305   Cal Poly W 79-65 89%    
  Nov 22, 2021 80   TCU L 71-75 38%    
  Nov 25, 2021 138   Fresno St. W 72-71 54%    
  Nov 27, 2021 111   UC Irvine W 74-72 56%    
  Nov 30, 2021 202   Hawaii W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 04, 2021 93   Louisiana Tech W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 07, 2021 242   Mount St. Mary's W 71-60 81%    
  Dec 11, 2021 113   @ California L 67-71 38%    
  Dec 14, 2021 76   @ Boise St. L 72-79 28%    
  Dec 17, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 79-65 87%    
  Dec 19, 2021 161   Montana W 74-68 68%    
  Dec 21, 2021 322   @ San Jose St. W 86-76 78%    
  Dec 30, 2021 137   @ Pacific L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 01, 2022 170   San Diego W 79-73 68%    
  Jan 06, 2022 49   St. Mary's L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 08, 2022 307   @ Portland W 84-76 74%    
  Jan 13, 2022 137   Pacific W 74-70 62%    
  Jan 15, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 77-92 12%    
  Jan 20, 2022 49   @ St. Mary's L 63-73 22%    
  Jan 27, 2022 38   BYU L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 29, 2022 67   @ San Francisco L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 03, 2022 82   Loyola Marymount L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 05, 2022 170   @ San Diego L 76-77 50%    
  Feb 12, 2022 67   San Francisco L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 17, 2022 82   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-76 30%    
  Feb 19, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 74-95 5%    
  Feb 24, 2022 147   @ Pepperdine L 79-80 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 307   Portland W 87-73 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.6 3.0 0.3 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 6.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.8 5.5 2.2 0.2 14.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 4.2 3.5 1.1 0.1 11.1 9th
10th 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 4.9 10th
Total 0.4 1.6 3.8 6.6 9.3 11.5 13.1 13.0 12.0 9.9 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 66.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-3 34.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-4 7.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 0.2% 98.1% 31.8% 66.3% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
14-2 0.7% 94.0% 21.0% 73.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.4%
13-3 1.6% 77.2% 14.9% 62.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 73.3%
12-4 3.3% 56.1% 9.7% 46.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 51.3%
11-5 5.3% 32.8% 5.4% 27.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 28.9%
10-6 7.7% 16.3% 3.4% 12.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 13.3%
9-7 9.9% 6.6% 1.9% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 4.8%
8-8 12.0% 2.3% 1.1% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.7 1.2%
7-9 13.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.1%
6-10 13.1% 0.3% 0.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
5-11 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
4-12 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
3-13 6.6% 6.6
2-14 3.8% 3.8
1-15 1.6% 1.6
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 8.0% 1.8% 6.3% 9.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.0 6.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0