IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Seattle
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.5	#179
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#118
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.1	#170

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.6	#196

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.8%	11.3%	3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	14.1	15.1

.500 or above	79.9%	82.0%	46.5%
.500 or above in Conference	76.3%	77.9%	51.5%
Conference Champion	11.1%	11.6%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.3%	1.3%

First Four	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
First Round	10.4%	10.9%	2.9%
Second Round	1.2%	1.3%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 4	15 - 3	19 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2021	347	Alcorn St.	W	83-66	94%
Nov 12, 2021	69	@ Washington St.	L	66-78	15%
Nov 14, 2021	236	Idaho St.	W	72-66	72%
Nov 18, 2021	256	Morgan St.	W	82-74	75%
Nov 22, 2021	355	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	82-59	97%
Nov 27, 2021	353	St. Thomas	W	85-63	96%
Dec 01, 2021	331	McNeese St.	W	82-68	87%
Dec 05, 2021	218	VMI	W	80-75	67%
Dec 08, 2021	145	@ UNLV	L	69-74	33%
Dec 12, 2021	263	UC San Diego	W	80-72	74%
Dec 18, 2021	95	@ Washington	L	72-81	23%
Dec 30, 2021	102	New Mexico St.	L	68-71	41%
Jan 01, 2022	215	@ California Baptist	L	78-79	48%
Jan 06, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	84-66	93%
Jan 12, 2022	209	Utah Valley	W	78-73	65%
Jan 15, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	84-74	79%
Jan 20, 2022	167	@ Abilene Christian	L	71-75	38%
Jan 22, 2022	185	@ Tarleton St.	L	67-70	42%
Jan 26, 2022	153	Stephen F. Austin	W	76-74	55%
Jan 29, 2022	196	Sam Houston St.	W	79-75	63%
Feb 03, 2022	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	68-73	34%
Feb 05, 2022	102	@ New Mexico St.	L	65-74	25%
Feb 10, 2022	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	80-69	81%
Feb 12, 2022	308	Lamar	W	78-67	81%
Feb 16, 2022	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	77-72	65%
Feb 19, 2022	215	California Baptist	W	81-76	66%
Feb 24, 2022	209	@ Utah Valley	L	75-76	46%
Feb 26, 2022	303	@ Dixie St.	W	81-77	63%
Mar 05, 2022	357	Chicago St.	W	87-63	97%
Projected Record						18 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.8	3.3	3.2	1.8	0.6		11.1	1st
2nd												0.1	0.7	3.1	4.6	2.8	0.7	0.0			11.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	3.5	4.8	2.4	0.3	0.0				11.9	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.6	4.9	1.9	0.2	0.0					11.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.3	4.9	2.0	0.2	0.0						11.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.7	4.6	2.2	0.2	0.0							10.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.3	4.2	2.2	0.3	0.0								9.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.0	0.3	1.7	3.6	2.1	0.3	0.0									8.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.3	2.9	1.7	0.3	0.0										6.4	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	1.0	1.9	1.2	0.2												4.6	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	0.7	0.1	0.0												2.9	11th
12th		0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0													1.4	12th
13th	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.1	13th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.5	2.6	4.3	6.2	8.1	9.9	11.1	11.8	11.3	10.4	9.1	6.4	3.8	1.8	0.6			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	98.3%	1.8		1.6	0.2
16-2	82.6%	3.2		2.3	0.9	0.0
15-3	51.1%	3.3		1.5	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0
14-4	20.2%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	3.8%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.1%	11.1		6.4	3.4	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		69.5%	62.6%	6.9%	10.3				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		18.3%
17-1	1.8%		51.6%	49.1%	2.5%	12.5						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.9		5.0%
16-2	3.8%		41.3%	41.0%	0.3%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	2.3		0.6%
15-3	6.4%		32.0%	32.0%	0.0%	14.0												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.1	4.3		0.1%
14-4	9.1%		23.8%	23.8%		14.4													0.1	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.3	6.9
13-5	10.4%		15.3%	15.3%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.4	8.8
12-6	11.3%		9.1%	9.1%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	10.3
11-7	11.8%		4.9%	4.9%		15.6															0.0	0.2	0.4	11.3
10-8	11.1%		2.6%	2.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	10.8
9-9	9.9%		1.3%	1.3%		15.9																0.0	0.1	9.8
8-10	8.1%		0.4%	0.4%		15.8																0.0	0.0	8.1
7-11	6.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
6-12	4.3%																							4.3
5-13	2.6%																							2.6
4-14	1.5%																							1.5
3-15	0.7%																							0.7
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.8%	10.7%	0.1%	14.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.9	2.9	2.9	1.9	89.2		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	6.3			6.7	10.3	20.5	24.6	17.4	3.6	6.7	3.6	6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	59.1%	7.9						15.9	29.5					13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	78.7%	8.5						11.5	23.0		23.0		21.3