Preseason Rankings
SMU
American Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#62
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#112
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#88
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.1% 5.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 9.4% 9.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 31.6% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.7% 25.1% 3.8%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 10.5
.500 or above 84.1% 84.7% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.9% 69.5% 36.9%
Conference Champion 9.8% 9.9% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 3.0% 11.9%
First Four4.4% 4.4% 1.5%
First Round29.0% 29.4% 4.6%
Second Round16.0% 16.3% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen6.7% 6.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.0% 0.3%
Final Four1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 23 - 35 - 8
Quad 37 - 312 - 11
Quad 48 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 331   McNeese St. W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 12, 2021 19   @ Oregon L 71-79 24%    
  Nov 15, 2021 338   Northwestern St. W 91-67 98%    
  Nov 18, 2021 325   SE Louisiana W 86-64 97%    
  Nov 21, 2021 84   Missouri W 75-73 57%    
  Nov 24, 2021 196   Sam Houston St. W 84-71 87%    
  Nov 28, 2021 269   Louisiana Monroe W 81-63 93%    
  Dec 01, 2021 145   UNLV W 78-68 80%    
  Dec 04, 2021 92   Vanderbilt W 78-72 69%    
  Dec 08, 2021 87   Dayton W 74-68 68%    
  Dec 19, 2021 240   @ New Mexico W 78-68 79%    
  Dec 21, 2021 198   Evansville W 75-61 86%    
  Dec 29, 2021 108   @ Tulsa W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 02, 2022 68   Central Florida W 74-70 61%    
  Jan 06, 2022 90   @ Cincinnati L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 12, 2022 177   South Florida W 77-65 83%    
  Jan 15, 2022 136   @ Tulane W 74-70 61%    
  Jan 20, 2022 11   @ Memphis L 72-81 23%    
  Jan 23, 2022 54   Wichita St. W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 26, 2022 177   @ South Florida W 74-68 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 120   Temple W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 70-74 39%    
  Feb 09, 2022 13   Houston L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 183   @ East Carolina W 77-70 70%    
  Feb 16, 2022 120   @ Temple W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 20, 2022 11   Memphis L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 23, 2022 108   Tulsa W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 27, 2022 13   @ Houston L 65-74 23%    
  Mar 03, 2022 90   Cincinnati W 79-73 67%    
  Mar 06, 2022 136   Tulane W 77-67 77%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 2.6 1.4 0.4 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.2 4.2 2.0 0.4 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.0 5.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.0 5.7 7.3 9.0 10.2 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.4 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-2 85.1% 2.6    1.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 58.2% 2.9    1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 25.0% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 6.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 57.0% 43.0% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 99.8% 45.1% 54.7% 2.9 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-2 3.0% 98.0% 36.3% 61.7% 4.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.8%
15-3 5.0% 93.5% 26.4% 67.1% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 91.2%
14-4 7.0% 83.9% 19.5% 64.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 80.0%
13-5 9.0% 67.2% 14.3% 52.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 61.7%
12-6 10.5% 45.1% 9.8% 35.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 39.2%
11-7 11.1% 25.1% 6.1% 19.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.3 20.2%
10-8 11.2% 12.7% 3.6% 9.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.8 9.4%
9-9 10.2% 4.7% 2.3% 2.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 2.5%
8-10 9.0% 2.1% 1.6% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.4%
7-11 7.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0%
6-12 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
5-13 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.0
4-14 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 31.1% 8.5% 22.6% 8.1 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.8 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 68.9 24.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 54.9 35.7 7.1 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 46.1 32.8 9.4 11.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0