Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#99
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.3#57
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 2.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.5% 42.5% 24.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 2.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 14.0
.500 or above 92.5% 95.9% 81.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.4% 98.3% 94.3%
Conference Champion 48.0% 52.7% 32.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.7%
First Round37.9% 42.0% 24.0%
Second Round9.2% 10.9% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 35 - 37 - 7
Quad 416 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 157   Bradley W 79-71 77%    
  Nov 12, 2021 15   @ Alabama L 80-92 13%    
  Nov 14, 2021 153   @ Stephen F. Austin W 81-79 56%    
  Nov 17, 2021 204   Montana St. W 83-73 82%    
  Nov 22, 2021 63   Nevada L 80-83 39%    
  Nov 23, 2021 95   Washington L 81-82 49%    
  Nov 24, 2021 169   George Mason W 79-74 67%    
  Nov 30, 2021 232   Prairie View W 83-71 84%    
  Dec 08, 2021 341   @ Idaho W 84-69 89%    
  Dec 11, 2021 69   Washington St. L 75-78 41%    
  Dec 15, 2021 96   @ Missouri St. L 78-81 40%    
  Dec 20, 2021 233   UMKC W 76-64 84%    
  Dec 22, 2021 154   Oral Roberts W 89-81 73%    
  Dec 30, 2021 130   @ North Dakota St. L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 01, 2022 313   @ North Dakota W 84-73 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 186   South Dakota W 86-77 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 326   @ Nebraska Omaha W 88-76 84%    
  Jan 15, 2022 344   Denver W 93-71 96%    
  Jan 20, 2022 353   @ St. Thomas W 90-68 96%    
  Jan 22, 2022 274   @ Western Illinois W 89-81 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 313   North Dakota W 87-70 91%    
  Jan 29, 2022 130   North Dakota St. W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 186   @ South Dakota W 83-80 60%    
  Feb 10, 2022 344   @ Denver W 90-74 89%    
  Feb 12, 2022 326   Nebraska Omaha W 91-73 92%    
  Feb 17, 2022 274   Western Illinois W 92-78 87%    
  Feb 19, 2022 353   St. Thomas W 93-65 99%    
  Feb 24, 2022 154   @ Oral Roberts W 86-84 55%    
  Feb 26, 2022 233   @ UMKC W 73-67 69%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.6 9.4 14.0 13.1 7.2 48.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.0 8.2 6.2 2.0 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 5.0 2.1 0.2 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.5 8.4 11.4 13.9 15.8 16.0 13.1 7.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.2    7.2
17-1 100.0% 13.1    12.3 0.8
16-2 87.3% 14.0    10.7 3.2 0.1
15-3 59.5% 9.4    5.1 3.8 0.5
14-4 25.7% 3.6    1.2 1.7 0.6 0.1
13-5 7.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 48.0% 48.0 36.5 9.9 1.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.2% 81.7% 74.3% 7.4% 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.3 28.8%
17-1 13.1% 67.0% 62.8% 4.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.5 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 11.2%
16-2 16.0% 53.3% 51.6% 1.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.0 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.5 3.3%
15-3 15.8% 40.4% 40.1% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.1 0.2 9.4 0.4%
14-4 13.9% 30.4% 30.3% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.3 9.7 0.1%
13-5 11.4% 22.1% 22.1% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 8.9 0.0%
12-6 8.4% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 7.1
11-7 5.5% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 5.0
10-8 3.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.4
9-9 2.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
8-10 1.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.5% 37.1% 1.4% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 2.6 6.8 9.8 8.0 4.9 2.0 61.5 2.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 3.4 8.7 15.5 31.3 28.0 8.9 5.9 0.5 0.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 5.3 4.0 36.7 27.3 14.0 4.7 8.7 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 5.8 14.6 27.1 14.6 29.2 14.6