IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.8	#140
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.0	#287
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.4	#188

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.3	#110

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.6%	0.8%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.9%	10.2%	3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	2.0%	2.8%	0.3%
Average Seed	11.5	11.2	13.1

.500 or above	54.4%	65.0%	31.8%
.500 or above in Conference	51.5%	59.0%	35.6%
Conference Champion	6.2%	7.9%	2.5%
Last Place in Conference	9.6%	6.4%	16.2%

First Four	0.9%	1.2%	0.3%
First Round	7.4%	9.5%	2.8%
Second Round	2.1%	2.9%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.8%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	2 - 7
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 2	14 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	277	@ Arkansas Little Rock	W	69-64	68%
Nov 12, 2021	285	Austin Peay	W	74-62	86%
Nov 19, 2021	47	Colorado	L	62-70	23%
Nov 26, 2021	347	Alcorn St.	W	79-60	95%
Dec 01, 2021	198	@ Evansville	W	63-62	52%
Dec 04, 2021	195	Southern Miss	W	69-63	70%
Dec 11, 2021	108	@ Tulsa	L	62-68	32%
Dec 15, 2021	268	Southeast Missouri St.	W	74-63	81%
Dec 22, 2021	67	@ San Francisco	L	63-73	22%
Jan 02, 2022	46	Loyola Chicago	L	60-65	33%
Jan 05, 2022	73	Drake	L	66-69	41%
Jan 08, 2022	189	@ Valparaiso	W	68-67	50%
Jan 12, 2022	96	@ Missouri St.	L	66-73	30%
Jan 15, 2022	107	Northern Iowa	W	71-70	50%
Jan 19, 2022	176	Indiana St.	W	69-64	66%
Jan 22, 2022	157	@ Bradley	L	65-67	45%
Jan 25, 2022	46	@ Loyola Chicago	L	57-68	18%
Jan 29, 2022	189	Valparaiso	W	70-64	68%
Feb 02, 2022	96	Missouri St.	L	69-70	47%
Feb 05, 2022	223	@ Illinois St.	W	69-67	56%
Feb 09, 2022	107	@ Northern Iowa	L	67-73	32%
Feb 12, 2022	198	Evansville	W	66-59	70%
Feb 15, 2022	157	Bradley	W	68-64	63%
Feb 19, 2022	176	@ Indiana St.	L	66-67	47%
Feb 22, 2022	223	Illinois St.	W	72-64	74%
Feb 26, 2022	73	@ Drake	L	63-72	25%
Projected Record						13 - 13	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.7	1.5	1.7	1.3	0.6	0.2		6.2	1st
2nd											0.1	0.6	2.2	2.7	2.2	1.0	0.1				8.8	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.4	3.5	3.8	1.8	0.4	0.0					11.0	3rd
4th								0.0	0.4	2.1	4.7	4.0	1.3	0.1	0.0						12.6	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.8	5.3	3.4	0.8	0.0								12.9	5th
6th					0.0	0.0	0.7	3.3	5.1	2.8	0.5	0.0									12.5	6th
7th					0.1	1.0	3.4	4.6	2.2	0.3	0.0										11.5	7th
8th			0.0	0.2	1.3	3.3	3.6	1.6	0.2	0.0											10.1	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	1.6	2.9	2.4	0.9	0.1													8.3	9th
10th	0.2	1.0	1.7	1.8	1.0	0.3	0.0														6.0	10th

Total	0.2	1.0	2.1	3.6	5.2	7.0	8.6	10.1	10.6	10.7	10.1	8.9	7.5	5.4	4.1	2.7	1.4	0.6	0.2			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.6		0.6	0.0
16-2	90.9%	1.3		1.1	0.2
15-3	62.5%	1.7		1.0	0.6	0.1
14-4	37.4%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	12.9%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.2%	6.2		3.8	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		92.2%	61.5%	30.7%	5.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		79.7%
17-1	0.6%		87.4%	46.4%	41.0%	7.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		76.5%
16-2	1.4%		71.2%	42.0%	29.2%	9.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0			0.4		50.3%
15-3	2.7%		49.3%	28.9%	20.4%	10.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.3		28.7%
14-4	4.1%		29.4%	20.6%	8.8%	11.6							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.9		11.1%
13-5	5.4%		18.0%	14.8%	3.2%	12.3									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		4.4		3.7%
12-6	7.5%		11.5%	10.7%	0.7%	12.8									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0		6.6		0.8%
11-7	8.9%		7.4%	7.2%	0.2%	13.4											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	8.2		0.2%
10-8	10.1%		4.9%	4.8%	0.0%	13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	9.6		0.0%
9-9	10.7%		3.2%	3.2%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.3
8-10	10.6%		1.7%	1.7%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.4
7-11	10.1%		1.1%	1.1%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	10.0
6-12	8.6%		0.3%	0.3%		15.7																0.0	0.0	8.6
5-13	7.0%		0.2%	0.2%		15.9																0.0	0.0	7.0
4-14	5.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.2
3-15	3.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.6
2-16	2.1%																							2.1
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		7.9%	6.0%	1.9%	11.5		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.9	1.4	0.9	0.5	0.2	92.1		2.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	3.2	7.5	35.5	18.7	25.2		6.5	6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	4.0			25.0	50.0	25.0
Lose Out	0.0%