Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Big Sky
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#122
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#91
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#169
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.7% 27.9% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 14.3
.500 or above 83.0% 88.8% 63.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 92.0% 78.8%
Conference Champion 31.5% 35.7% 17.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.4%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
First Round24.2% 27.5% 13.6%
Second Round4.6% 5.5% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dixie St. (Away) - 76.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 303   @ Dixie St. W 85-77 77%    
  Nov 15, 2021 49   @ St. Mary's L 64-74 19%    
  Nov 18, 2021 113   @ California L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 23, 2021 126   Yale W 77-76 50%    
  Dec 02, 2021 219   @ Eastern Washington W 82-79 60%    
  Dec 04, 2021 341   @ Idaho W 80-67 86%    
  Dec 08, 2021 209   Utah Valley W 81-73 75%    
  Dec 18, 2021 2   @ Michigan L 64-82 7%    
  Dec 22, 2021 303   Dixie St. W 88-74 86%    
  Dec 30, 2021 287   Sacramento St. W 78-65 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 201   Northern Colorado W 80-72 74%    
  Jan 06, 2022 220   Portland St. W 81-72 76%    
  Jan 08, 2022 324   Northern Arizona W 79-63 90%    
  Jan 13, 2022 161   @ Montana L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 15, 2022 204   @ Montana St. W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 236   Idaho St. W 75-65 79%    
  Jan 24, 2022 129   Weber St. W 83-79 61%    
  Jan 27, 2022 220   @ Portland St. W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 03, 2022 341   Idaho W 83-64 93%    
  Feb 05, 2022 219   Eastern Washington W 85-76 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 287   @ Sacramento St. W 75-68 70%    
  Feb 14, 2022 201   @ Northern Colorado W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 204   Montana St. W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 21, 2022 324   @ Northern Arizona W 76-66 78%    
  Feb 24, 2022 161   Montana W 75-69 67%    
  Mar 03, 2022 236   @ Idaho St. W 72-68 62%    
  Mar 05, 2022 129   @ Weber St. L 80-82 42%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.6 7.6 7.6 5.0 2.1 31.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 6.1 5.1 2.4 0.5 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 4.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 3.3 1.1 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.2 6.9 8.3 10.0 10.8 11.4 11.3 10.0 8.1 5.0 2.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
19-1 100.0% 5.0    4.9 0.1
18-2 93.9% 7.6    6.7 0.9 0.0
17-3 75.9% 7.6    5.4 2.0 0.1
16-4 50.1% 5.6    3.0 2.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 24.1% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1
14-6 6.8% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.5% 31.5 23.3 6.8 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.1% 80.1% 68.7% 11.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 36.3%
19-1 5.0% 65.2% 59.9% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 13.3%
18-2 8.1% 52.4% 50.1% 2.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.8 4.7%
17-3 10.0% 41.4% 40.9% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.8 0.9%
16-4 11.3% 33.2% 33.1% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.1 7.5 0.2%
15-5 11.4% 24.8% 24.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 8.6
14-6 10.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 8.8
13-7 10.0% 12.6% 12.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 8.7
12-8 8.3% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 7.5
11-9 6.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.5
10-10 5.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.9
9-11 3.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.8
8-12 2.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-14 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.7% 24.0% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 3.5 6.3 5.8 4.3 2.0 75.3 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 2.4 12.0 26.5 28.9 9.6 18.4 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 98.6% 6.1 10.1 30.4 29.0 10.1 10.1 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 84.2% 5.0 15.8 34.2 34.2