IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.8	#153
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.4	#123
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.5	#160

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.3	#165

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.6%	14.8%	5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.5	13.4	14.6

.500 or above	76.9%	81.2%	46.1%
.500 or above in Conference	81.6%	84.2%	62.8%
Conference Champion	15.2%	16.6%	5.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.2%	0.9%

First Four	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
First Round	13.3%	14.5%	4.9%
Second Round	2.1%	2.3%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 87.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 4	13 - 3	17 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2021	317	Southern	W	81-68	88%
Nov 14, 2021	99	South Dakota St.	L	79-81	44%
Nov 19, 2021	267	Middle Tennessee	W	79-69	80%
Nov 23, 2021	83	Buffalo	L	77-83	31%
Nov 28, 2021	338	@ Northwestern St.	W	82-72	79%
Dec 11, 2021	110	Liberty	L	66-70	38%
Dec 14, 2021	269	Louisiana Monroe	W	76-66	79%
Dec 18, 2021	4	@ Kansas	L	64-83	6%
Dec 21, 2021	262	Jackson St.	W	74-65	77%
Dec 30, 2021	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	80-68	84%
Jan 01, 2022	308	Lamar	W	79-67	83%
Jan 06, 2022	167	@ Abilene Christian	L	71-73	43%
Jan 08, 2022	185	@ Tarleton St.	L	68-69	46%
Jan 15, 2022	196	@ Sam Houston St.	L	76-77	49%
Jan 20, 2022	142	Grand Canyon	W	71-69	56%
Jan 22, 2022	102	New Mexico St.	L	68-69	46%
Jan 26, 2022	179	@ Seattle	L	74-76	45%
Jan 29, 2022	215	@ California Baptist	W	79-78	52%
Feb 03, 2022	209	Utah Valley	W	78-72	69%
Feb 05, 2022	303	Dixie St.	W	85-73	82%
Feb 10, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	85-65	94%
Feb 16, 2022	357	Chicago St.	W	88-62	98%
Feb 19, 2022	308	@ Lamar	W	76-70	68%
Feb 24, 2022	196	Sam Houston St.	W	80-74	67%
Feb 26, 2022	167	Abilene Christian	W	74-70	61%
Mar 02, 2022	102	@ New Mexico St.	L	65-72	29%
Mar 05, 2022	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	77-71	69%
Projected Record						17 - 10	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.5	2.3	4.1	4.5	2.9	0.9		15.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.8	3.4	5.3	3.4	0.8	0.0			13.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	3.9	5.2	2.4	0.3	0.0				12.6	3rd
4th										0.1	0.8	3.6	4.9	2.2	0.2	0.0					11.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	3.0	4.9	2.1	0.2	0.0						10.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.4	4.5	2.2	0.2	0.0							9.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	1.9	3.7	2.0	0.3	0.0								8.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	1.4	3.0	1.8	0.2	0.0									6.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	1.1	2.2	1.5	0.2	0.0										5.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	0.8	1.4	0.9	0.2	0.0											3.4	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0												2.0	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0													0.9	12th
13th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.1	13th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.9	3.2	4.9	6.9	8.6	10.5	11.8	11.9	11.6	10.2	7.8	5.3	2.9	0.9			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
17-1	99.1%	2.9		2.6	0.3
16-2	84.5%	4.5		3.2	1.2	0.1
15-3	52.1%	4.1		1.8	1.8	0.4	0.0
14-4	22.4%	2.3		0.5	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.7%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.2%	15.2		9.1	4.5	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.9%		71.9%	61.4%	10.4%	9.5		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.3		27.1%
17-1	2.9%		57.5%	52.5%	5.1%	12.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.2		10.7%
16-2	5.3%		43.3%	41.8%	1.5%	13.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0	3.0		2.6%
15-3	7.8%		32.4%	32.2%	0.2%	13.5											0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	0.8	0.3	0.0	5.3		0.3%
14-4	10.2%		24.2%	24.2%		14.0												0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.1	7.7
13-5	11.6%		15.1%	15.1%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.2	9.8
12-6	11.9%		9.1%	9.1%		14.8														0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	10.8
11-7	11.8%		5.9%	5.9%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	11.1
10-8	10.5%		2.9%	2.9%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	10.2
9-9	8.6%		1.6%	1.6%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	8.5
8-10	6.9%		0.4%	0.4%		15.8																0.0	0.0	6.9
7-11	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
6-12	3.2%																							3.2
5-13	1.9%																							1.9
4-14	0.9%																							0.9
3-15	0.5%																							0.5
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		13.6%	13.3%	0.3%	13.5		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.7	3.5	3.4	2.8	1.2	86.4		0.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.0	10.3		27.0	31.7	11.1	9.5	10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	80.0%	6.8				20.0		20.0	20.0			20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	85.4%	9.2						17.1			34.1	17.1		17.1