IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.9	#185
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.8	#334
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.2	#215

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.2	#167

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.9	14.4	15.0

.500 or above	56.0%	84.6%	51.9%
.500 or above in Conference	75.5%	91.0%	73.3%
Conference Champion	10.5%	22.2%	8.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.1%	0.5%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 7
Quad 3	2 - 4	3 - 11
Quad 4	11 - 3	14 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	71	@ Stanford	L	60-72	13%
Nov 12, 2021	4	@ Kansas	L	57-78	3%
Nov 16, 2021	54	@ Wichita St.	L	59-72	13%
Nov 22, 2021	130	@ North Dakota St.	L	61-67	29%
Nov 24, 2021	2	@ Michigan	L	55-77	3%
Nov 29, 2021	1	@ Gonzaga	L	63-88	2%
Dec 05, 2021	335	Charleston Southern	W	75-62	87%
Dec 14, 2021	214	@ South Alabama	L	66-67	46%
Dec 17, 2021	214	South Alabama	W	69-64	65%
Dec 21, 2021	306	Air Force	W	67-57	80%
Dec 30, 2021	303	@ Dixie St.	W	74-70	62%
Jan 01, 2022	209	@ Utah Valley	L	68-70	45%
Jan 06, 2022	196	Sam Houston St.	W	72-68	62%
Jan 08, 2022	153	Stephen F. Austin	W	69-68	54%
Jan 13, 2022	102	@ New Mexico St.	L	59-68	23%
Jan 15, 2022	142	@ Grand Canyon	L	62-68	32%
Jan 20, 2022	215	California Baptist	W	74-69	65%
Jan 22, 2022	179	Seattle	W	70-67	58%
Jan 26, 2022	308	@ Lamar	W	69-65	64%
Jan 29, 2022	310	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	70-66	64%
Feb 05, 2022	357	Chicago St.	W	81-57	97%
Feb 12, 2022	167	Abilene Christian	W	67-65	56%
Feb 17, 2022	209	Utah Valley	W	71-67	63%
Feb 19, 2022	357	@ Chicago St.	W	78-60	92%
Feb 24, 2022	310	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	73-63	80%
Feb 26, 2022	308	Lamar	W	72-62	79%
Mar 03, 2022	196	@ Sam Houston St.	L	69-71	43%
Mar 05, 2022	167	@ Abilene Christian	L	64-68	37%
Projected Record						14 - 14	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.6	3.1	3.0	1.8	0.6		10.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.7	3.0	4.4	3.0	0.8	0.1			12.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.8	3.4	5.0	2.2	0.4	0.0				11.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.6	4.9	2.0	0.3	0.0					11.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.2	4.8	2.1	0.2	0.0						10.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.8	4.5	2.0	0.2	0.0							10.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.0	4.3	2.1	0.3									9.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.3	1.7	3.6	2.1	0.3										7.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.5	2.9	1.7	0.3	0.0										6.6	9th
10th				0.0	0.2	1.2	2.0	1.3	0.2	0.0											5.0	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0												3.1	11th
12th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0													1.6	12th
13th	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.2	13th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.7	2.8	4.5	6.3	8.0	10.1	10.9	11.6	11.4	10.5	8.4	6.4	3.8	1.9	0.6			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	95.5%	1.8		1.6	0.3
16-2	78.9%	3.0		2.0	0.9	0.1
15-3	47.7%	3.1		1.4	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.0
14-4	19.1%	1.6		0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	3.4%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	10.5%	10.5		5.9	3.3	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%																							0.6
17-1	1.9%																							1.9
16-2	3.8%		0.6%	0.6%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		3.7
15-3	6.4%		1.2%	1.2%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.3
14-4	8.4%		1.4%	1.4%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.3
13-5	10.5%		1.3%	1.3%		14.9															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.3
12-6	11.4%		0.9%	0.9%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	11.3
11-7	11.6%		0.8%	0.8%		15.5																0.0	0.0	11.5
10-8	10.9%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	10.8
9-9	10.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
8-10	8.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
7-11	6.3%																							6.3
6-12	4.5%																							4.5
5-13	2.8%																							2.8
4-14	1.7%																							1.7
3-15	0.8%																							0.8
2-16	0.3%																							0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	14.9												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	99.4		0.0%