Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#224
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#116
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#266
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#185
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 15.7% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.2 13.0 14.4
.500 or above 27.7% 67.8% 25.9%
.500 or above in Conference 49.8% 80.5% 48.5%
Conference Champion 6.3% 17.5% 5.8%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 1.8% 11.3%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round5.2% 15.2% 4.8%
Second Round0.5% 3.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 4.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 64 - 13
Quad 48 - 512 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-84 4%    
  Nov 16, 2021 167   Abilene Christian L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 18, 2021 123   @ North Texas L 60-69 20%    
  Nov 20, 2021 42   @ San Diego St. L 59-76 7%    
  Nov 27, 2021 72   @ Utah St. L 64-78 11%    
  Nov 29, 2021 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-76 16%    
  Dec 07, 2021 63   Nevada L 70-79 23%    
  Dec 11, 2021 308   Lamar W 75-67 74%    
  Dec 16, 2021 154   @ Oral Roberts L 75-82 28%    
  Dec 19, 2021 40   @ Oklahoma L 61-79 8%    
  Dec 30, 2021 214   South Alabama W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 01, 2022 243   Troy W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 06, 2022 121   @ Georgia St. L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 08, 2022 245   @ Georgia Southern L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 13, 2022 171   Louisiana L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 15, 2022 269   Louisiana Monroe W 72-66 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 22, 2022 277   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 27, 2022 174   Texas St. L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 174   @ Texas St. L 61-67 31%    
  Feb 03, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 182   Appalachian St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 10, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 171   @ Louisiana L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-67 67%    
  Feb 19, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 24, 2022 243   @ Troy L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 214   @ South Alabama L 69-73 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 4.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.9 12th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.1 5.8 7.5 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 9.5 8.6 7.2 5.8 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.3% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 87.5% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 67.6% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1
14-4 39.4% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.0% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 53.2% 41.0% 12.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.7%
17-1 0.6% 47.1% 41.9% 5.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.0%
16-2 1.4% 36.1% 34.0% 2.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2%
15-3 2.5% 31.2% 30.4% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.2%
14-4 4.1% 19.9% 19.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.3 0.1%
13-5 5.8% 16.4% 16.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 4.9
12-6 7.2% 10.5% 10.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 6.4
11-7 8.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.1
10-8 9.5% 3.8% 3.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.1
9-9 10.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.8
8-10 10.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
7-11 9.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-12 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-13 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
3-15 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-16 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.5% 5.4% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 94.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%