Preseason Rankings
Toledo
Mid-American
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.6#138
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#186
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 2.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 22.6% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 5.9% 0.9%
Average Seed 11.6 11.2 12.9
.500 or above 73.3% 84.8% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 80.7% 87.7% 71.2%
Conference Champion 16.6% 21.7% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.4% 1.9%
First Four1.6% 2.3% 0.7%
First Round16.3% 21.5% 9.1%
Second Round4.7% 6.9% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 48 - 10
Quad 410 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 189   @ Valparaiso W 75-73 57%    
  Nov 13, 2021 212   Detroit Mercy W 83-73 81%    
  Nov 17, 2021 221   @ Oakland W 81-77 64%    
  Nov 22, 2021 178   Charlotte W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 04, 2021 24   @ Michigan St. L 69-81 15%    
  Dec 07, 2021 157   Bradley W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 11, 2021 57   @ Richmond L 72-80 25%    
  Dec 21, 2021 118   Marshall W 83-80 61%    
  Dec 29, 2021 284   Western Michigan W 80-66 86%    
  Jan 01, 2022 132   @ Kent St. L 76-78 45%    
  Jan 04, 2022 279   @ Central Michigan W 85-78 72%    
  Jan 08, 2022 314   Northern Illinois W 79-64 89%    
  Jan 11, 2022 152   @ Miami (OH) W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 150   @ Bowling Green L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 18, 2022 199   Ball St. W 82-73 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 91   @ Ohio L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 25, 2022 83   Buffalo W 82-81 51%    
  Jan 28, 2022 128   Akron W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 01, 2022 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-69 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 199   @ Ball St. W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 08, 2022 91   Ohio W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 12, 2022 314   @ Northern Illinois W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 15, 2022 132   Kent St. W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 279   Central Michigan W 88-75 85%    
  Feb 22, 2022 284   @ Western Michigan W 77-69 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 152   Miami (OH) W 76-70 68%    
  Mar 01, 2022 83   @ Buffalo L 79-85 33%    
  Mar 04, 2022 150   Bowling Green W 82-76 67%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 4.5 4.3 2.5 0.8 16.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.5 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.9 3.6 1.1 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 4.1 1.8 0.3 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.7 6.0 7.4 9.0 10.0 10.5 10.5 9.9 8.6 6.8 4.7 2.5 0.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 99.9% 2.5    2.3 0.1
18-2 90.9% 4.3    3.4 0.8 0.0
17-3 65.2% 4.5    2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 35.5% 3.0    1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 12.7% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 11.0 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 92.6% 63.7% 28.9% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 79.5%
19-1 2.5% 77.5% 49.9% 27.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 55.1%
18-2 4.7% 62.6% 42.5% 20.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 34.9%
17-3 6.8% 46.2% 35.0% 11.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 17.2%
16-4 8.6% 30.3% 26.1% 4.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.0 5.8%
15-5 9.9% 19.4% 18.1% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.9 1.5%
14-6 10.5% 13.1% 12.8% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.2 0.3%
13-7 10.5% 9.3% 9.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.6
12-8 10.0% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.4 0.0%
11-9 9.0% 4.1% 4.1% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.6
10-10 7.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.2
9-11 6.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
8-12 4.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.7
7-13 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.0% 13.9% 3.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.0 4.2 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.4 83.0 3.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.7 23.2 18.7 30.5 21.0 4.1 0.3 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 10.1 20.3 18.8 20.3 18.8 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 77.8% 3.7 25.9 25.9 25.9