Preseason Rankings
UC Riverside
Big West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#148
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.0#264
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#193
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#117
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 28.6% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 3.6% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.3 12.0 13.7
.500 or above 67.9% 91.6% 64.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 93.2% 76.4%
Conference Champion 16.7% 32.4% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.2% 2.3%
First Four1.0% 1.5% 0.9%
First Round14.4% 27.7% 12.6%
Second Round2.5% 7.7% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 2.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 11.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 45 - 11
Quad 413 - 318 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 42   @ San Diego St. L 59-72 12%    
  Nov 11, 2021 61   @ Arizona St. L 69-79 18%    
  Nov 17, 2021 170   @ San Diego L 69-71 45%    
  Nov 22, 2021 163   @ UTEP L 66-68 44%    
  Nov 26, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 73-61 85%    
  Nov 29, 2021 49   @ St. Mary's L 57-69 17%    
  Dec 01, 2021 19   @ Oregon L 62-77 10%    
  Dec 12, 2021 215   California Baptist W 77-70 72%    
  Dec 19, 2021 287   Sacramento St. W 71-60 82%    
  Dec 22, 2021 341   Idaho W 76-59 92%    
  Dec 28, 2021 208   @ UC Davis W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 02, 2022 202   @ Hawaii W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 06, 2022 263   UC San Diego W 76-66 79%    
  Jan 08, 2022 111   UC Irvine W 68-67 50%    
  Jan 13, 2022 305   @ Cal Poly W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 15, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-71 29%    
  Jan 22, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-70 68%    
  Jan 27, 2022 271   Long Beach St. W 79-69 80%    
  Jan 29, 2022 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 01, 2022 208   UC Davis W 74-67 70%    
  Feb 03, 2022 202   Hawaii W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 10, 2022 111   @ UC Irvine L 64-70 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 263   @ UC San Diego W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 17, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 305   Cal Poly W 73-61 83%    
  Feb 24, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 79-67 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 97   UC Santa Barbara L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 03, 2022 231   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 75-73 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 271   @ Long Beach St. W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.3 4.2 3.9 2.1 0.6 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.8 5.2 4.1 1.9 0.3 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.0 4.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.6 5.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 10.0 10.6 10.1 9.6 8.0 6.1 4.2 2.1 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.1
18-2 91.8% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
17-3 68.8% 4.2    2.9 1.2 0.1
16-4 41.1% 3.3    1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 19.2% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 11.3 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 81.6% 69.1% 12.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 40.3%
19-1 2.1% 64.6% 56.4% 8.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 18.9%
18-2 4.2% 49.1% 45.1% 4.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.2 7.4%
17-3 6.1% 36.2% 34.8% 1.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.9 2.2%
16-4 8.0% 26.1% 25.8% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.9 0.4%
15-5 9.6% 22.3% 22.2% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 7.5 0.1%
14-6 10.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 8.7
13-7 10.6% 10.9% 10.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 9.5
12-8 10.0% 7.9% 7.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 9.2
11-9 9.0% 5.4% 5.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.5
10-10 7.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.6
9-11 6.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.3
8-12 5.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.0
7-13 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.9% 14.3% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.3 3.5 2.8 1.5 85.1 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 11.5 25.0 50.0 13.5