Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#97
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#302
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#73
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 2.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 4.9% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 44.9% 26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 6.3% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.5 11.5 13.3
.500 or above 93.0% 98.6% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 97.4% 90.6%
Conference Champion 39.2% 53.3% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.4% 2.1% 1.2%
First Round31.6% 43.9% 26.2%
Second Round8.0% 14.4% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 5.5% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.9% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 7
Quad 416 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 69   @ Washington St. L 66-72 30%    
  Nov 20, 2021 357   Chicago St. W 87-57 99.6%   
  Nov 24, 2021 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-52 99%    
  Nov 29, 2021 224   Texas Arlington W 76-64 84%    
  Dec 03, 2021 147   Pepperdine W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 11, 2021 49   @ St. Mary's L 60-68 27%    
  Dec 14, 2021 137   @ Pacific W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 19, 2021 304   Florida A&M W 76-60 91%    
  Dec 22, 2021 236   Idaho St. W 72-60 84%    
  Dec 30, 2021 263   @ UC San Diego W 76-68 74%    
  Jan 01, 2022 111   @ UC Irvine L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 06, 2022 305   Cal Poly W 76-60 91%    
  Jan 08, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-60 80%    
  Jan 13, 2022 271   @ Long Beach St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 231   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 20, 2022 148   UC Riverside W 71-64 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 208   UC Davis W 77-66 80%    
  Jan 25, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-69 78%    
  Jan 30, 2022 202   @ Hawaii W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 03, 2022 111   UC Irvine W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 263   UC San Diego W 79-65 86%    
  Feb 10, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-63 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 305   @ Cal Poly W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 17, 2022 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-69 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 271   Long Beach St. W 82-68 87%    
  Feb 24, 2022 208   @ UC Davis W 74-69 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 148   @ UC Riverside W 68-67 53%    
  Mar 01, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 82-66 89%    
  Mar 04, 2022 202   Hawaii W 73-63 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.9 9.0 9.7 7.5 3.6 39.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.2 6.4 5.8 2.9 0.7 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 4.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.6 7.0 8.3 10.3 11.6 12.3 11.9 10.4 7.5 3.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.6    3.6
19-1 100.0% 7.5    7.3 0.2
18-2 93.1% 9.7    8.4 1.3 0.0
17-3 75.7% 9.0    6.5 2.4 0.1
16-4 47.7% 5.9    3.2 2.2 0.5 0.0
15-5 23.0% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.3% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 30.1 7.6 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.6% 85.3% 74.3% 11.0% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 42.9%
19-1 7.5% 72.7% 64.9% 7.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 22.0%
18-2 10.4% 56.3% 52.7% 3.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.6 7.6%
17-3 11.9% 44.3% 43.4% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.6 1.5%
16-4 12.3% 34.6% 34.4% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 8.1 0.3%
15-5 11.6% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.2 8.4 0.0%
14-6 10.3% 21.8% 21.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 8.0
13-7 8.3% 15.2% 15.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 7.0
12-8 7.0% 10.9% 10.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.3
11-9 5.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.1
10-10 4.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.8
9-11 3.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
8-12 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-13 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.2% 30.7% 1.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 2.0 5.6 7.9 6.4 4.2 1.9 67.8 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 4.2 2.8 11.6 20.2 26.3 21.7 10.2 4.6 1.4 0.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 88.4% 6.1 2.1 9.5 11.9 18.5 16.1 6.3 6.0 10.4 3.9 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 86.1% 7.8 4.4 15.3 10.9 10.2 15.3 9.5 10.2 10.2