Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#310
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.4#82
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#329
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#257
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 4.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.2 14.9
.500 or above 15.1% 57.4% 14.5%
.500 or above in Conference 20.2% 54.6% 19.7%
Conference Champion 0.7% 3.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 1.3% 6.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 4.9% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 72 - 12
Quad 48 - 79 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 31   @ Arizona L 60-84 1%    
  Nov 20, 2021 324   Northern Arizona W 70-66 65%    
  Nov 22, 2021 324   @ Northern Arizona L 67-69 45%    
  Nov 23, 2021 231   Cal St. Fullerton L 76-81 34%    
  Nov 26, 2021 8   @ Illinois L 62-90 1%    
  Dec 01, 2021 342   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 03, 2021 7   @ Texas L 59-87 1%    
  Dec 08, 2021 342   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 14, 2021 211   Texas Southern L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 16, 2021 207   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-82 22%    
  Dec 30, 2021 153   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-80 16%    
  Jan 01, 2022 196   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-81 22%    
  Jan 06, 2022 142   Grand Canyon L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 08, 2022 102   New Mexico St. L 63-74 20%    
  Jan 13, 2022 357   Chicago St. W 83-66 91%    
  Jan 20, 2022 209   @ Utah Valley L 70-79 23%    
  Jan 22, 2022 303   @ Dixie St. L 76-80 39%    
  Jan 26, 2022 167   Abilene Christian L 69-75 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 185   Tarleton St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 02, 2022 308   Lamar W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 167   @ Abilene Christian L 66-78 18%    
  Feb 10, 2022 179   @ Seattle L 69-80 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 215   @ California Baptist L 73-82 25%    
  Feb 16, 2022 179   Seattle L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 196   Sam Houston St. L 74-78 39%    
  Feb 24, 2022 185   @ Tarleton St. L 63-73 20%    
  Mar 02, 2022 308   @ Lamar L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 05, 2022 153   Stephen F. Austin L 71-77 31%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.7 0.9 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.2 5.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.9 6.4 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 19.1 11th
12th 2.5 6.1 6.3 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 20.1 12th
13th 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 13th
Total 0.8 3.9 7.8 10.8 12.3 13.1 12.1 10.5 8.5 6.5 4.9 3.6 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 77.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 57.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 20.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 40.3% 40.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 36.8% 35.2% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5%
15-3 0.4% 31.1% 31.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 17.3% 17.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.5% 9.8% 9.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-7 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4
10-8 4.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.8
9-9 6.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.5
8-10 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.5
7-11 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 12.1% 12.1
5-13 13.1% 13.1
4-14 12.3% 12.3
3-15 10.8% 10.8
2-16 7.8% 7.8
1-17 3.9% 3.9
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%