IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.1	#77
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.6	#96
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.6	#127

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.5	#46

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.2%	1.3%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	3.3%	3.8%	0.3%
Top 6 Seed	6.2%	7.1%	0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid	27.1%	30.3%	8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	18.9%	21.5%	4.6%
Average Seed	8.8	8.8	10.1

.500 or above	80.0%	84.4%	53.6%
.500 or above in Conference	74.7%	78.0%	54.9%
Conference Champion	11.5%	12.8%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.4%	1.0%	3.8%

First Four	4.4%	4.9%	1.5%
First Round	24.9%	27.8%	7.3%
Second Round	12.2%	13.8%	2.6%
Sweet Sixteen	4.6%	5.3%	0.8%
Elite Eight	1.8%	2.1%	0.2%
Final Four	0.7%	0.8%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 85.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 2	3 - 4	4 - 7
Quad 3	7 - 3	11 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 1	20 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	191	St. Peter's	W	72-61	86%
Nov 13, 2021	228	Wagner	W	77-63	89%
Nov 17, 2021	92	@ Vanderbilt	L	72-74	44%
Nov 20, 2021	135	Chattanooga	W	75-67	75%
Nov 24, 2021	44	Syracuse	L	72-75	38%
Dec 04, 2021	200	Campbell	W	74-62	84%
Dec 08, 2021	164	Jacksonville St.	W	74-64	79%
Dec 11, 2021	131	@ Old Dominion	W	71-69	56%
Dec 15, 2021	159	Florida Atlantic	W	76-66	79%
Dec 18, 2021	53	Penn St.	W	73-72	52%
Dec 21, 2021	241	New Hampshire	W	76-61	88%
Dec 30, 2021	169	George Mason	W	76-66	79%
Jan 02, 2022	98	Davidson	W	70-65	65%
Jan 05, 2022	87	@ Dayton	L	67-69	44%
Jan 08, 2022	210	@ La Salle	W	75-69	69%
Jan 11, 2022	238	George Washington	W	80-66	88%
Jan 14, 2022	28	@ St. Bonaventure	L	63-71	25%
Jan 22, 2022	193	Saint Joseph's	W	83-71	82%
Jan 26, 2022	98	@ Davidson	L	67-68	46%
Jan 29, 2022	57	@ Richmond	L	70-75	35%
Feb 02, 2022	87	Dayton	W	70-66	63%
Feb 05, 2022	162	Duquesne	W	76-66	78%
Feb 08, 2022	101	Rhode Island	W	75-70	65%
Feb 12, 2022	169	@ George Mason	W	73-69	62%
Feb 15, 2022	275	@ Fordham	W	67-57	79%
Feb 18, 2022	57	Richmond	W	73-72	53%
Feb 26, 2022	119	@ Massachusetts	W	76-75	52%
Mar 01, 2022	28	St. Bonaventure	L	66-68	43%
Mar 05, 2022	79	@ Saint Louis	L	70-73	41%
Projected Record						18 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.4	1.8	3.4	3.3	2.0	0.6		11.5	1st
2nd												0.1	0.8	3.3	4.7	2.4	0.5	0.0			11.8	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	3.6	4.6	1.9	0.2	0.0				11.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.7	3.6	4.7	1.8	0.1						11.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	3.3	4.6	1.8	0.2	0.0						10.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.6	4.4	2.0	0.2								9.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.1	2.2	0.2									8.5	7th
8th							0.1	1.1	3.5	2.3	0.3	0.0									7.3	8th
9th						0.1	0.8	2.5	2.2	0.4											6.0	9th
10th					0.0	0.5	1.9	1.8	0.5	0.0											4.8	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.0	0.0											3.5	11th
12th			0.0	0.3	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.0													2.4	12th
13th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0														1.5	13th
14th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0															0.6	14th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.7	3.0	4.6	6.1	8.3	10.0	11.0	11.4	11.1	10.2	8.6	5.9	3.8	2.0	0.6			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	99.3%	2.0		1.8	0.2
16-2	86.6%	3.3		2.4	0.9	0.0
15-3	56.4%	3.4		1.6	1.4	0.3	0.0
14-4	21.1%	1.8		0.5	0.9	0.4	0.1
13-5	4.1%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.5%	11.5		6.9	3.4	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		100.0%	58.7%	41.3%	2.7		0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
17-1	2.0%		99.3%	49.3%	50.0%	4.2		0.2	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.6%
16-2	3.8%		94.6%	38.1%	56.6%	6.2		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.2		91.3%
15-3	5.9%		83.7%	28.2%	55.5%	8.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.0				1.0		77.3%
14-4	8.6%		66.8%	20.4%	46.4%	9.6			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.6	1.0	1.2	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.0			2.8		58.3%
13-5	10.2%		45.7%	14.2%	31.4%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.0	1.4	1.0	0.2	0.0			5.6		36.7%
12-6	11.1%		26.3%	9.5%	16.9%	11.1						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0		8.2		18.6%
11-7	11.4%		14.2%	6.1%	8.0%	11.5								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0		9.8		8.5%
10-8	11.0%		6.2%	3.7%	2.5%	11.9								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		10.3		2.6%
9-9	10.0%		2.5%	1.9%	0.6%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.7		0.6%
8-10	8.3%		1.0%	1.0%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.2
7-11	6.1%		0.6%	0.5%	0.1%	13.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.0		0.1%
6-12	4.6%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	4.6
5-13	3.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
4-14	1.7%																							1.7
3-15	1.0%																							1.0
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		27.1%	10.1%	17.0%	8.8		0.5	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.7	1.9	3.1	3.9	5.1	4.3	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0	72.9		18.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.6	52.7	33.5	13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.6	49.4	43.2	7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.3	22.7	42.3	21.6	6.2	7.2