Preseason Rankings
Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#281
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.6% 8.6% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 19.2% 19.3% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 30.4% 30.6% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.9% 57.2% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.9% 53.1% 9.2%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 8.7
.500 or above 79.0% 79.3% 28.8%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 69.8% 26.9%
Conference Champion 10.7% 10.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.1% 15.0%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 1.5%
First Round55.1% 55.3% 9.9%
Second Round36.2% 36.3% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen18.1% 18.2% 2.0%
Elite Eight8.6% 8.6% 1.2%
Final Four4.1% 4.1% 0.8%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 11
Quad 35 - 115 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 337   Maine W 76-49 99%    
  Nov 12, 2021 184   @ Navy W 72-62 81%    
  Nov 15, 2021 264   Radford W 75-55 96%    
  Nov 18, 2021 283   St. Francis (PA) W 81-60 97%    
  Nov 21, 2021 234   Merrimack W 74-55 94%    
  Nov 24, 2021 11   Memphis L 70-73 39%    
  Nov 26, 2021 37   Xavier W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 01, 2021 16   @ Maryland L 63-68 33%    
  Dec 04, 2021 103   Wake Forest W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 08, 2021 290   Cornell W 81-59 96%    
  Dec 12, 2021 87   @ Dayton W 68-65 59%    
  Dec 17, 2021 28   St. Bonaventure L 65-66 48%    
  Dec 22, 2021 10   @ Duke L 67-74 29%    
  Dec 29, 2021 22   @ North Carolina L 72-77 36%    
  Jan 01, 2022 117   Pittsburgh W 75-64 81%    
  Jan 04, 2022 59   North Carolina St. W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 12, 2022 29   @ Virginia L 56-60 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 45   Notre Dame W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 19, 2022 59   @ North Carolina St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 22, 2022 144   @ Boston College W 77-70 71%    
  Jan 26, 2022 85   Miami (FL) W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 18   @ Florida St. L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 02, 2022 60   Georgia Tech W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 05, 2022 117   @ Pittsburgh W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 12, 2022 44   Syracuse W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 14, 2022 29   Virginia W 59-57 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 22   North Carolina W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 60   @ Georgia Tech L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 26, 2022 85   @ Miami (FL) W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 01, 2022 27   Louisville W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 55   @ Clemson L 63-64 49%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.4 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.4 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.0 1.1 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.3 0.1 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.9 8.0 8.8 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.0 7.6 6.0 4.5 2.7 1.3 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.3% 1.3    1.2 0.1
18-2 88.3% 2.4    1.9 0.4 0.0
17-3 66.0% 3.0    1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 38.7% 2.3    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 13.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 60.5% 39.5% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 48.2% 51.8% 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.5% 100.0% 27.7% 72.2% 2.6 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 6.0% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 3.6 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.6% 99.4% 17.3% 82.1% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
14-6 9.0% 97.1% 13.0% 84.1% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.7%
13-7 9.6% 89.7% 8.3% 81.4% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 88.7%
12-8 9.8% 76.8% 4.7% 72.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 75.7%
11-9 9.9% 55.6% 2.5% 53.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 4.4 54.5%
10-10 8.8% 32.9% 1.5% 31.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 31.9%
9-11 8.0% 12.3% 1.1% 11.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.1 11.4%
8-12 6.9% 3.1% 0.4% 2.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.7 2.7%
7-13 5.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.6%
6-14 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 2.8
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 56.9% 8.6% 48.3% 6.2 3.8 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.2 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 43.1 52.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.8 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.3 12.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.7 17.3